2014 Midterm Aftermath: A Few Reality Checks

Let's get the obvious stuff out of the way first, shall we?  For Democrats, the bruising outcome of Tuesday's midterm elections reflects the "six-year itch" that plagues most two-term presidents in their twilight years, as the party searches for its next standard-bearer -- and voters start yearning for a new face at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Only once since World War II has a sitting president bucked the trend, according to the National Journal. That moment came in 1998, when Democrats and Republicans essentially fought each other to a five-seat stalemate in the U.S. House and Senate, following popular backlash against Clinton's impeachment. As the old wisecrack goes, there's a reason why second-term presidents suddenly start talking up their foreign policy initiatives.

What's more, most of Tuesday's Republican victories came in solid red states that aren't Democrat-friendly, anyway. As one MSNBC commentator observed of Kay Hagan's defeat in North Carolina, no Democratic Senator has won re-election there since 1968...a reality that all her hard campaigning apparently couldn't change. Similar stories abound in states like Arkansas, where fellow one-termer Mark Pryor was the last Democrat left standing in his congressional delegation.

And it's also worth remembering that, for most voters, midterm elections are more about punishing the party in power than holding some kind of polite teatime debate. As a political science professor of mine once bluntly informed our class: "I hated Richard Nixon, and voted against him every chance I ever got." President Obama undoubtedly serves a similar purpose for his critics.

GOP stalwarts might well to ponder their prospects for 2016, when the remorseless Senate electoral math flips the opposite way, with 23 Republicans and 10 Democrats up for re-election. As GOP strategists Glenn Bolger and Neil Newhouse observe, those races include "The Big Blue Wall" of 18 states (and Washington, D.C.) that have swung Democratic for six consecutive presidential elections. And that's before we get to this, um, other elephant in the room...

After reading the above quote, a fair-minded person might well ask, "What year is this again?" Apparently, if Mr. Yelton's wishes prevailed, we'd remain stuck in World War I limbo...when poll taxes were in full effect...women's suffrage remained a dream...and the average American worked six or seven days a week for peanuts...so that the uber-rich could cram even more loot into their already-overstuffed money bins.

The quote cost Mr. Yelton his county precint chairmanship in 2013, but its assumptions --  bigoted and blinkered as they are -- might explain why consultants like Bolger and Newhouse worry about where their beloved GOP brand is headed in the 2016 presidential year...when turnout is higher, but not necessarily among the "Angry Old White Guy" crowd that analysts fingered as the driving force behind Tuesday's midterm results.

As Republican critics suggest, the wave of voting restrictions passed after Obama's victories seemed calculated to batten down the hatches against a younger, more diverse electorate that the party seems little interested in courting.  It's almost as if you're hearing them say: "OK, we know you don't love us.  Guess what?  Let's just make your civic duty harder to do...yeah, that's the ticket. That'll save our bacon."

However, this line of defense doesn't change the big picture, as Bolger and Newhouse's Chicago Tribune op-ed column suggests: "To win 50.1 percent of the popular vote, we estimate, Republicans will need nearly 64 percent of the white vote -- which would be a record for a non-incumbent presidential candidate."

Of course, there's a flipside to the above-mentioned argument, and that's the power of big money -- which surprisingly few contributors addressed on Tuesday night. Outside spending rocketed to new highs during this election cycle, including the $62 million that went into tipping the Iowa Senate race, or the $70 million dedicated to the Colorado Senate contest.

Even Michigan's longtime Republican Congressman, Fred Upton -- long accustomed to romping towards the finish line -- found himself sweating a little bit to victory on Tuesday due to a late-breaking $2 million negative ad blitz unleashed by the Mayday PAC on behalf of Democrat Paul Clements. (Mayday's founders have gotten a fair bit of national press by promising to eventually disband after it elects enough politicians to grease the skids for their demise -- we'll see how well that idea plays out, right?)

And that's the real story behind Tuesday's midterms, because -- in simple terms -- money buys access.  Access equals power and face time...as in backs being scratched, chits getting cashed, and phone calls quickly returned to arrange yet another back room deal that excludes our society's most vulnerable citizens from the equation. That equation won't change in a Washington overrun by influence peddlers and lobbyists of every stripe.

Given the scenarios already being mulled over in Washington, D.C. -- a GOP-led Senate sending nonsense legislation that an unmoved Obama will veto, because he won't ever face the voters again, and the two-thirds majority for an override may or may not not exist -- another bout of gridlock for America's least fortunate might not seem so bad. Hell, it's not like anyone pays attention to their needs now, right?

I've already had progressive and Democratic friends ask, "What the hell just happened?" My response to that question is simple: let's stop wringing our hands, stop playing defense, and stop spending so much time parked at the goal line. The day of reckoning is coming, but until then, there's no plenty of work to do...so let's get moving. -- The Reckoner

Links To Go (Here's Why You're Never On The Dark Money Radar):
MLive.com: Congressman Fred Upton 
Declares Victory Over Democrat Paul Clements:
http://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2014/11/2014_election_results_fred_upt.html

The Chicago Tribune: Senate Control No Cure For Republican Ills In 2016:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-gop-can-lose-by-winning-perspec-1104-20141103-story.html#page=1

The National Journal: Six-Year Itch Plagues Presidents In Midterms:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/six-year-itch-plagues-presidents-in-midterms-20140106

The New York Times: 
Tough Tests Looming In 2016 Raise Stakes For GOP In Midterm Elections:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/12/us/politics/2016-headwinds-raise-stakes-for-gop-in-this-years-midterms.html

The Duped Tea Party Set

This is right from a Tea Party page on a major social website:

They are being set up by a fall too, by those who are busy destroying the economy from the top. They are ready and eager to clean out their pensions and bank accounts a la Cyprus.

The Tea Party set while right to be concerned about growing avenues of tyranny and over-taxation, are being duped just as much as the liberal Obama set.

They are told people are poor because they are "losers" and sadly, many of them believe the lies about the economy improving. They have been set up to defend the robber barons at all costs. While they blame Obama for everything, they will ignore that Bush brought the Patriot Act in to begin with.

Ever meet one of those libertarian types who may be good about civil liberties, but still will defend a world "free market" economy, and American jobs sent overseas? It's set up that way. Our owned media influences each demographic to think in a way that benefits the very top.

The Tea Party set will kick the dogs below them, while the ones on top will make out like bandits! They have been fully indoctrinated into the belief that the poor are lessers, and deserving of their ill economic fate and lazy. Are there lazy people? Sure there are, but in a country with unemployment and underemployment is at the levels they are at, the picture is far bigger.

Trust me, even if a person had a good job before, and lost it and fell down the ladder, these types will cut you no break. Pompous and prideful in their place, they don't even want to imagine that they too one day could be in the same position. They will blather to us about their work ethic and how hard they worked as the economy implodes around them.

Wasn't the original Tea Party about freedom? These folks sure aren't.--The Squawker