Mad King Watch (Take XIII): Notes On The (Apparent) Eve Of World War III

 

<"Missing In Action..."/The Reckoner
Pahlavi Head Shot:
European Union, 1998-2026>

<i.>

A maximalist-minded President launches a series of strikes against a nonwhite-governed enemy, in its latest saber-rattling display of its endless appetite for controlling others. Rather than rallying around the flag, however, the overall effect is closer to the sound of one hand clapping, or the sudden implosion of a damp wet paper bag, amid rampant levels of social and political inequity. To steal a rhetorical flourish from Winston Churchill, never have so many toiled for so little, and never have so few owned so much more than the rest, always at their expense.

If you think you're living in the world of 1896 -- or going from zero to 1939, in 10 seconds or class -- welcome to the club. if you're still harboring any doubts, this weekend's strikes against Iran should finally settle them. What's most remarkable about our latest bout of Middle East madness is how little the governing classes  have learned from calamities like the endless Iraq war of 2003, and the chaotic August 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, that finally climaxed our 20-year military adventurism there.

Suffice to say, neither instance proved the satirical proposition that I remember seeing in one of Tom Tomorrow's cartoons on this very subject: "They'll be too busy making cheap oil for their new American friends to stay mad at us for long." We'll revisit that idea shortly, but it's a thesis worth repeating, as Trump sleepwalks into the same box canyon that derailed his Biden and Bush-era counterparts -- that nations can never be created, nor managed, by remote control.

Nevertheless, we seem ready to repeat that mistake once more, if Trump's scarlet-coated rhetorical flourishes to Iran's beleaguered masses are any indication: "America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach." Yet bombing alone has never proven enough to generate regime change all by itself, as the Allies learned in World War II, for example. Or should have learned, perhaps, in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The other basic problem, as experts cited by the Wall Street Journal suggest (see link below), is that no matter how the dust settles, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will still hold all the guns. Without boots on the ground, or some other event  forcing their hand, they won't be going anywhere -- nor switching sides -- any time soon. "There is no organized opposition ready to seize this moment,"  as one of those experts, Mohammed Albasha, told the Journal. "The likely outcome is not reform, but consolidation, closer to a closed military state."

Indeed. Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death has already spurred the emergence of a collectivist leadership that can hold the reins until the situation stabilizes, and eventually, choose a successor. If Iran's military fortunes fall further -- which isn't yet a given -- that same group could head for the hills, and coordinate some type of insurgency, if need be, similar to the Afghan or Iraqi experiences. 

Whatever scenario unfolds, neither seems likely to include a job opening for Iran's former crown prince. Judging by Reza Pahlavi's initial public statements, he seems afflicted by the same wishful thinking bouncing around the halls of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue: "This is a humanitarian intervention; and its target is the Islamic Republic, its repressive apparatus, and its machinery of slaughter -- not the country and great nation of Iran."

For all the richly justified hatred that Iranians harbor toward their government, we doubt that "humanitarian" will be the word they associate with the missiles and munitions raining down on their country. Nor is the same brutal regime that instigated over 7,000 verified deaths in its latest crackdown likely to post a Craigslist-style ad ("Wanted: New Leader To Usher Transition Away From Theocracy. Unlimited Potential And Benefits"), nor a billboard in downtown Tehran ("Reza, Where Are You? Phone Home").

<Simply drowning in the devil's excrement? 
Edwin Drake, the first man to succeed in drilling for oil:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49499443>

<ii.>

So where does this latest twitch of the Trump circus leave us? Undoubtedly, some of it's driven by petrostate nostalgia, since few blocs exert such outsized influence as the fossil fuel industry -- which accounts for just eight percent of the US economy, even by its own figures alone Yet that statistic doesn't tell the whole story, for the industry "is also woven into the U.S. political fabric in ways that resemble the structure of petrostates," as Inside Climate News suggests:

"Wyoming gets 59 percent of its state budget from fossil fuel revenue; North Dakota, 29 percent; and Alaska, 21 percent. Other states, though less reliant, take in staggering sums, led by Texas, at $14.6 billion annually; California, $7.8 billion; and Pennsylvania, $4.4 billion. And the money going into state coffers reflects the far larger impact the industry is having on state economies and jobs.

"Because institutions like the Electoral College and the U.S. Senate give states outsized power compared to their populations, fossil fuel-reliant regions can hold considerable sway over national politics and policy." It's the reason, the Climate News piece goes on venture, that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris shied away discussing from the Biden administration's attempts to move toward renewable energy, and pledged not to ban fracking, in "a vain effort to win the swing state of Pennsylvania, the nation’s No. 2 natural gas producer."

Such skewed petro-politics are also the reason why Pennsylvania's newly-minted Senator, John Fetterman, has gone from denouncing fracking as a "stain" on his state, to an aggressive proponent; why industry-backed boondoggles like clean coal and carbon capture continue to get federal funding; and why oil and gas interests rooted so openly for a Trump restoration, one that promised a golden opportunity to line their pockets like never before.

The only losers, of course, are the rest of us -- who will be cheerfully expected to pay more at the pump, which ends up being the most common collateral consequences of any prolonged conflict. I still hold vivid memories of the spring 2005 price spikes -- when gas soared from $1.60, to almost $3.50 per gallon -- and people at my newspaper of the time openly shed tears over the implications: "Whatever happened to the national interest?" 

I remember thinking, maybe we should have asked that question before we slapped an endless war on the national credit card. While those spikes came a couple years after the Iraq chaos, they still unfolded in a market that was still struggling to find its feet. 

Whatever or whoever was to blame, I couldn't overlook the consequences for my wallet, since I drove a 40- to 50-mile round trip to work every day at the time. When the Squawker and I worked out the math, we figured that I was losing about $20 a day, before I even got out of bed.

Even now, I struggle to describe how demoralized it felt, of heading to work, knowing you're going to lose money -- which is a far cry from the angst that oil and gas interests feel at failing to extract every last egg from the golden goose. It's the reason, I imagine, for the celebrated quote uttered in 1975 by Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo, who'd been Venezuela's petroleum minister during the 1960s:

"It is the devil's excrement.
We are drowning
in the devil's excrement."

<Time to swap out of that fancy linen, perhaps?

The ethically challenged Mr. Jorkin ponders his options...

"A Christmas Carol," 1951: YouTube capture>

<iii.>

Having been largely relegated to the dust of  scholarly obscurity, Alfonzo's lacerating observation has gained new life in recent years, notably after the Trump-sponsored snatching of Venezuela's tinpot strongman, Nicholas Maduro. On a more basic level, it reflects what those on the losing side of the petro-political divide know all too well -when the deck feels stacked.

Time will tell how the Iran crisis fits into that equation, though -- honestly -- the effect on oil prices is only one of many reasons to oppose the Orange Man's latest off-kilter gambit. Start with his 2024 victory speech pledge: "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars." So much for that idea in a two-month period that's already seen three foreign entanglements.

Follow with the notion, ingrained since our beginnings, that only Congress can authorize any sort of military actions -- but don't linger endlessly on the "technical" or "management" arguments, as I call them, since they won't save us from this man's excesses, anymore than they did Bush's or Biden's Middle East missteps. "But you can't do that!" is catnip to any bad actor's ears, and Trump is no exception; alas, it's going to take much stronger medicine to finish the job.

However, what makes this outburst of Iranian interventionism feel especially egregious is the social backdrop it's unfolding against. Never have Americans felt more economically battered and beleaguered, yet received so little social support, in coping with the myriad of social ills they face (see the Hill link below).

Half now struggle to pay bills on time, which isn't impacting the stealth purchasing of warehouses needed to ramp up Trump's deportation machine, at a reported cost of $45 billion -- on top of an $11.25 billion increase for operating it, plus $100 million to acquire all these structures in the first place, amid record levels of homelessness (an estimated 771,840 on any given night), and housing costs exploding beyond any reasonable level.

Or we might focus on proposals announced last month for the Pentagon's first-ever $1.5 trillion budget, for an agency that has now failed eight consecutive audits (the only one among 24 departments that has been unable to meet that metric). Other ill effects will make themselves felt in other ways that not may be readily apparent at the time, but still come with a cost.

A good example is last week's announcement of the Pentagon's decision to cut off Anthropic at the knees -- because its CEO didn't want its AI products deployed for mass surveillance. Not to worry, though, since OpenAI's feral tech bro, Sam Altman, tripped over himself to fill the gap -- striking a deal only hours after Anthropic had been elbowed aside (see MSN link below). Altman's indecent haste to help the Trump regime build its long-cherished surveillance state recalls a nifty exchange from the 1951 adaptation of A Christmas Carol:

"We're all cutthroats
under this fancy linen,
Mr. Snedrig."

"I must ask you
to speak for yourself,
Mr. Jorkin."

And that's before we get to these massive data center projects -- including 32 alone threatened for Michigan -- that Altman and his kind seek to impose on the rest of us, in all their infrastructure-straining, job-draining, utility bill-jacking, wallet-busting glory, But that is the greater picture staring down at us. For affordable food, housing or utilities, the political class claims that it simply cannot rummage enough coins from under the ouch -- a reluctance that completely deserts them when they roll out their pet projects.

Giant holding pens, for real or imagined "others"? Open the checkbook; money's no object! Data centers and defense contractors? You wouldn't want them shivering in the rain and snow, do you? Innocent Americans potentially targeted as terrorists, or enemies of the state, thereby impacting their ability to make a living? Sorry, can't rethink the blueprint. Our republic would simply fall apart!

If this disconnect doesn't mobilize people, then nothing will, though it will undoubtedly take a sustained campaign to turn back this latest tide of madness. Whether that happens with the November midterms -- or, to coin the Doobie Brothers' phrase, "taking it to the streets," if Trump actively tries to derail or interfere with them -- remains to be seen.

Easy answers will hardly abound, as the risks continue to pile up. Yet this is, paradoxically, when we must find our greatest resolve, and steel ourselves for the enormous task that lies ahead, as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists noted, in assessing the aftermath of Trump's 2024 victory:

"We do this not because our success is guaranteed. Given the forces mobilized against us, we are clearly the underdog. No white wizard will come to our rescue. But we have truth and justice on our side. And the stakes simply couldn’t be greater. We continue to fight for a livable planet, for us, our children, and future generations. Because it’s worth fighting for."

We couldn't have said it better. When all is said and done, let us hope that we're up to the task. --The Reckoner

Links To Go

Associated Press: Trump Statement On Iran:

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-trump-address-f662a4f3378535d81197be699fb35a3e

Bulletin Of Atomic Scientists:
Welcome To The American Petrostate:
https://thebulletin.org/2024/11/welcome-to-the-american-petrostate/

Inside Climate News:
Trump's "Energy Dominance Agenda"
Sounds Like A Petrostate Plan To Some:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26112024/will-the-united-states-be-a-petrostate-under-trump/

MSN: Cancel ChatGPT Movement 
Goes Big After Open AI's Latest Move:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/cancel-chatgpt-movement-goes-big-after-openai-s-latest-move/ar-AA1XfZpY?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=69a48ece529343999b303c0471c868a2&ei=67

The Hill: America's Cost-of-Living Crisis
Is Entering its Most Brutal Phase:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/opinion-america-s-cost-of-living-crisis-is-entering-its-most-brutal-phase/ar-AA1XjvPt?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=69a48bae4e1944f0a4e93208a8bffa9f&cvpid=2ad3332b7eeb40e6982228ecc305e935&ei=127

Wall Street Journal:

The Iranian Force Built To Defend The Regime...:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-iranian-force-built-to-defend-the-regime-now-faces-the-ultimate-test/ar-AA1Xiy27?ocid=BingNewsSerp

<Suggested Soundtrack: "For My Country," the A-side

of this 1983 single released by UK Decay:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF9Dn9bb98o&list=RDXF9Dn9bb98o&start_radio=1>

Smashing and crashing,
Disguised as terrain:
Count up the memories,
We'll go back again

For the honor I don't ask why,
His majesty's pleasure my honor to die:
For -- my -- country!
For -- my -- country!

Life's Little Injustices (Take XXVI): To Renew, Or Not Renew... (That Is The Question)

<"This Property Is Condemned"/Take I, The Reckoner>

If I've learned anything from apartment living it's this. Laundry rooms make great communal spaces, because they offer a place for people to drop some real knowledge, to coin a phrase from the hip-hop world. People let their guard down -- removing dirt from our clothes has a way of easing the stiffest of social fronts -- and tell you what's on their minds.

This weekend, I found myself working through the usual mountain of clothes, sheets, and assorted odds and ends -- a few raggedy pillow cases there, a stray towel over there -- when a young woman with bluish-tinted hair bounded into the room.

I had one more load to do, but needed to wait for her, since she had the three working washing machines going. With one drier already going, I just needed to kick-start the last load, and I'd be done for the night.

That's when the conversation really got rolling, after she gestured to the long silenced fourth washer. "How long have you lived here?"

"About 20 years," I responded. "Why do you ask?"

My questioner's eyes bugged open wide. "Really? Wow. How long has that washer..." She gestured at the plaintive "Out Of Order" sign taped to the lid. "Been like this?"

"Hmm, let me think," I ventured. "At least since last summer, I'd say."

"Couldn't be," the young woman scowled. She shook her head vigorously from side to side. "Because I moved in here last April, and it was already broken."

I presumed that my questioner had seen the plaintive exchange, hastily scribbled on that homegrown "Out Of Order" sign:

"Will this ever be fixed?"

"No."

"Fair enough. OK, then, it's probably been broken since the previous summer." A tinge of curiosity stirred in my brain. "If you didn't mind my asking, what's your experience been like here?"

"That's the thing," she responded. "I had a situation where water kept coming down from my upstairs neighbor, into my hall closet, and it got really moldy in there."

"Well, how did they address it?" I asked.

"They just painted right over it! They didn't even clean it out, really." She laughed, almost to herself. I swear I could her brain going: Uh-huh. Yeah, so what'd you'd expect?

"Anyway, I wasn't really using it that much, so I just moved everything out of there, that I already had."

"Sorry to hear that. If you didn't mind my asking..." I paused, to consider the framing of my next question. "What are you paying here, at the moment?"

"$1,255 per month," the young woman responded. "And when my lease comes up next month, I don't think I'll renew. Because the way I see it, you're not improving on anything, so why I should pay more to keep on living here?"

"I see the logic there," I agreed. "As for our household, we did look at other options, but didn't see anything worthwhile -- so we're standing pat, for now. Sometimes, it's easier to work with what you have."

"I definitely get that." The young woman began tossing the contents of her three loads into the driers.

"Usually, if you're looking for a better deal," I continued, "these things come down to timing. Something comes up, and you have the cash to do something about it. If you only have one or the other, you're stuck for a bit longer."

"Oh, for sure." The woman flashed a knowing smile, and finished packing up the driers. "But I don't think I'll be sticking around."

"Well, good luck to you, either way," I said.

"Same here. It's been nice talking with you." And with a great big flourish, she slammed the last of the three driers shut, and headed out, freeing me to start my final load, and finish my final task for the night.

Will she fare better than I did, in light of the shrunken housing market that prompted our household to put that search for the promised land (of lower rent) on hold? Time will tell, though the official word doesn't seem terribly encouraging, as the opening salvo from this Michigan Municipal League policy brief, issued in October 2024, appears to suggest:

"Michigan’s housing landscape faces a conundrum— a surplus of buildings coupled with unmet demand for housing units that people both like and can afford. As the composition of Michigan households evolves, with an average size of 2.48 people per the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) data in 2022, the mismatch between existing housing stock and actual needs becomes even more apparent.

"The release of Michigan’s Statewide Housing Plan in 2023 has further spotlighted the runaway problem facing every Michigan community: with housing prices up a whopping 84 percent since 2013, Michigan residents are facing numerous barriers to securing appropriate housing access."

There you have it, then. That old demon of supply and demand, the usual suspect driving so many of these discussions, doesn't appear to have grown anymore forgiving than it seemed back in 2008, when the housing bubble burst with such a resounding pop. Actually, the MML brief isn't all doom and gloom, as it offers some interesting potential solutions, as you see (click the link below).

Still, if there's a reason for why so many Americans feel caught in a mousetrap, it's not hard to see why. As usual, it comes down to lack of options and lack of resources, creating the familiar knock-on effect of falling further and further behind, with the bounty on the horizon fading ever farther from sight. --The Reckoner

Links To Go (Hurry, Hurry, Before
Your Rent Rockets Skyward Again)

Michigan Municipal League:
Hacking Michigan's Housing Potential:
https://mml.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/MML-Policy-Brief-House-Hacking-10_3-Final.pdf

US Census: Nearly Half Of Renter Households
Are Cost-Burdened, Proportions Differ By Race:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/renter-households-cost-burdened-race.html

<"This Property Is Condemned"/Take II, The Reckoner>

Mad King Watch (Take XII): Charles Dickens Sends His Regrets (And Good Riddance To 2025)

 

<"Just A Simple Balancing Act"/The Reckoner>

“Hope springs eternal/When you’re down on your knees/
Overnight sensations just fade away/Nothing last forever/
I don’t care what you say.”

<"Why Compromise?"
Pete Shelley, The Buzzcocks>

<i.>

2025 is sliding sideways into oblivion, straight down the memory role of "No thank you, and goodnight." The most notorious year since 1984, the one highlighted in George Orwell's novel, will soon crumple into a black napkin of sodden broken promises...and it couldn't have happened to a better year, honestly. 2025 is ending as it began, with Yer Humble Narrator left to wait 18 days for the 600 bucks he earned from his latest project. That's down to holiday timelines, because business offices are the same all over.

Though our invoices are getting processed this week, with the New Year's Eve/Day transition dominating the calendar, there obviously won't be anyone around to send them on their way, so we won't see any money till next Friday, basically (1/9). The same situation happened last month, due to the Thanksgiving holiday, so I've had to more fancy footwork than usual to keep it all going, put it that way.

On top of all this, the phone company dickheads have cut me off. I got the usual boilerplate disconnect letter on the so-called due date (12/15), but since I'd already booked a Promise To Pay Arrangement for New Year's Eve, I didn't see anything to worry about.

Apparently, I don't see far enough corners. The tone deaf customer service rep told me that I should have worried, because I didn't only have this month's bill on my back; they'd already tacked on next month's bill, doubling my IOU from $125 to $250. As the saying goes: nice work, if you can get it. "But that's double-dipping," I pointed out. "It reminds me of the Household Finance Corporation, when people had to take out a second mortgage just to pay the first one."

"If you paid your bill in full every month," Mr. Tone Deaf Bonehead responded, "then maybe you wouldn't have this problem. We give you 21 days to review it..."

"Hang on a second, though," I cut in. "If this bill is so easy to manage, as you claim, why am I always forced to make payment arrangements on it? And keep on extending them?"

Needless to say, he didn't like my answer. He remained immovable as the Arctic, so, the phone remains silent, for the moment. I just got a notice giving till me January 9th to repay the whole enchilada, or they'll disconnect me completely, and -- oh, I don't know -- push bamboo slivers under my fingernails. Or something like that.

My situation has improved, after selling off some more pieces from my rock 'n' roll memorabilia collection, plus I collected an advance for another project. I walked away with about $300 in my pocket, of which half has already gone for food. But it's something to build on, at least, and it'll make getting through this week a little bit easier.

Then I realize what I should have told Mr. Tone Deaf Bonehead. Hey, why don't we make the economy a little less crushing? Maybe then, I could keep a little bit more of my collection. And maybe I could actually get some sleep. Just a thought, eh? But he probably wouldn't have got that, either. Such is life, I guess.

 

<"The Congressman Regrets 

To Inform You That..."/The Reckoner>

“The greatest danger is 

if you tell people happy days are here again, 

and it is 1929.”

<Frank Luntz, Republican pollster>

<ii.>

Of course, it's all a matter of perception, isn't it? As friends have pointed out, I could argue -- I am better off, since I usually have the money to give away. Or I can generate enough, when the chips are down. On the other hand, we could say that we're worse off, since we can't save money in the current climate. Which makes the risk of a wipeout all the greater, since there's no cushion, usually. For millions right now, that is their reality, as the Politico piece (see link below) makes all too clear.

That's the hallmark of our phone company and all their brethren, to whom we pay tribute -- their bills are crafted to clean you out completely. Gone are the good old days of having 30 to 100 bucks left over -- depending on whom you paid, and when -- which exerts a domino effect on finances. Instead of having a cushion, however skimpy, the financial clock resets, leaving you to start from scratch.

For someone like me, who has to generate 100 percent of his own income, it can get tricky, especially if you're juggling multiple projects. I can't imagine how families manage it, let alone those caring for others. Though I'm not an economist, it's fair to suggest that depriving your citizenry of discretionary income -- in a consumer society that's enshrined around the endless disposal of it -- seems most unwise.

The richest irony of this whole business is seeing Trump's presidency hoisted on the same petard that plagued his predecessor, Joe Biden: "Look at those charts! Look at those graphs! Why are you all complaining? You've never had it so good!"  As the White House's present occupant will eventually discover, all the C-suite cheerleading won't paper over the chasms yawning in our wallets. Trump's now-you-see-it, now-you-don't approach to releasing key economic data seems equally unlikely to restore confidence in his mastery of such matters.

But this problem isn't new. Just look at how the average worker's position has shriveled since the 1970s, when the celebrated "gold watch" -- given out after a lifetime, more often than not, spent at a single job -- yielded to the 401(k), which allowed employers to wiggle out of guaranteeing pensions. By the mid-'80s, the nature of work itself began to change, through the rollout of arrangements that undermined the notion of "a job for life." 

Temp agencies grew by leaps and bounds, as labor union rolls continued to shrink, and various sectors of society began shedding the protective armor that had once sustained them in hard times. College professors became adjuncts; full-timers became part-timers; and, once the decimation of unions gained full force, future workers could no longer count on the same contractual arrangements that their predecessors continued to retain. And, while America had hardly been a social equity, all of these measures helped to bake inequality further into society.

The '90s and Noughties brought the Internet boom, greased by the lure of immediate, immeasurable wealth -- a bounty that raised Wall Street's infamous "Greed is good" mantra to a virtual religion on steroids. Companies embarked on an orgy of swallowing other companies, trimming payrolls and flattening wages, in rabid pursuit of ever-ballooning stock prices. Buybacks morphed into giant investor slush funds, enabling fish that were already too big -- cue Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, "The Frightful Five" -- to become overweening beyond all comprehension.

Traditional employment continued to erode during the 2010s and 2020s, amid the explosion of so-called gig work. Companies could shed themselves of nettlesome inconveniences, ,like health insurance and other related benefits in favor of "flexible" arrangements that forced constant competition for an ever-shrinking whirlpool of opportunity. The net result, pun fully intended, created an ever-growing precariat army -- trapped in an endless race to the bottom.

The current AI boom, one that's being blamed for a record 1.1 million layoffs, is the final unhappy conclusion of this 50-year trend -- and one that should serve as a reminder, for those who still need it, that if today's edge lords could run their empires without any employees, they would. Because for them, the pursuit of power and privilege at any price is more addictive than crack. And, in the end, every bit as destructive.

<"And So, It Begins... (Take I)"/The Reckoner>

"Let us have faith that right makes might, 

and in that faith, let us, to the end, 

dare to do our duty as we understand it." 

<Abraham Lincoln, Cooper Union Address, February 27, 1860>

<iii.>

Rest assured, though, I'm not solely picking on our current Commander-in-Chief, nor his following. In all honesty, there's plenty of blame to go around, especially when we ponder the posture of Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden. When historians write of this period, I suspect that they won't feel overly generous to the Biden era, one that began with a fair amount of promise, only to end up as a damp squib.

But don't take our word for it. Start with the failure to hold the chief perpetrators of the January 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol accountable for their actions. That blame falls on Biden's foot-dragging Attorney General, Merrick Garland, who allowed two years to pass before he finally cranked up the machinery -- whose full weight fell largely on the most minor of foot soldiers, based on a template cribbed from some '90s-era "Law & Order" episode: Flip the minnows, press them like grapes, and work your way up the pyramid, until somebody spills the beans, that helps you nab the big fish.

However, aside from a handful of Proud Boy leaders, this approach did not result in the scooping up of any big fish into the federal net. It's a lapse that Garland will have ample time to ponder, now Trump has named him as a target for his revenge tour. Let's not forget the US Senate's failure to take Trump permanently off the public game board via impeachment -- unlike Brazil, whose justice system did just that with Bolsonaro, a disparity that makes our failure all the more glaring. Accountability succumbed to expediency, a posture only cemented by Biden's ghastly grip-and-grin pictures of shaking his nemesis's hand ("Welcome home"), on his official return to the White House.

Biden failed on three other crucial fronts, all of which might have bolstered his position -- if ever so slightly -- had he only pressed a little bit harder. Having orchestrated the largest series of relief measures since the '60s -- which, briefly and tantalizingly, left America a less feral, more livable nation, during the pandemic era -- Biden retreated from that stance during the final two years of his presidency. 

With the C-suites whispering in his ear, Biden waved his wand and fell into line, pronouncing, "I hereby declare normalcy," and unwound all of those measures -- from his eviction and student debt moratoriums, pandemic relief payments, and enhanced unemployment measures -- despite growing evidence that the cost of living was galloping well beyond the average American's ability to keep up with it. Biden failed in refusing to acknowledge the greater implications of that surge in costs, as he and his administration dithered for months -- refusing to even utter the I-word ("inflation") ravaging millions of pocketbooks, until circumstances finally forced his hand. 

Biden's entrenched stubbornness points to a greater, more damaging failure, in his refusal to harness the rhetorical power of his own office. On issue after issue -- from the loss of abortion rights, to student debt, or the need for taming the rogue Supreme Court kneecapping him at every turn -- Biden's chief contribution to these debates lay in reminding supporters of his own helplessness ("Those darn Republicans. If I could only get them to go along."), which did little to renew public confidence in him.

That brings us to Biden's most glaring failure -- of honestly pondering whether he should run for re-election. Certainly, the image of an 82-year-old incumbent clinging to the life raft of power for another four-year term left many voters queasy; yet Biden was vulnerable on other fronts, as well. His failure to deliver on issues like student debt relief, coupled with an utter lack of empathy for the mass slaughter in Gaza, essentially cost him the youth vote; a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan renewed questions about America's international capacity and resolve; and his inability to tame the cost of living left a growing number of voters looking elsewhere for satisfaction.

Given all these factors, some type of "come to Jesus" discussion seemed in order, especially in light of polls suggesting a bedrock of only 37 percent pining for a Biden re-election campaign. But that's not what happened. As we all know, the protective moat of close advisers, big ticket donors and party chieftains that Biden had spent a lifetime cultivating, snapped into action -- to spike such a discussion from ever happening.

By the time that Biden begrudgingly abandoned his second campaign, the damage had been done. Instead of "the bridge to the 21st century," Biden would serve as the bridge for the Trump restoration, an irony that surely needs no further elaboration, as The Nation observed (see link below):  

                                                               
"While Biden had some genuine domestic achievements, particularly in his first two years, his larger presidency left a blighted record. Democrats won’t be able to win back the public unless they start talking frankly about what went wrong—and how party elites were implicated in the disaster. And until those elites are replaced." 

If you've come across a snappier, better summary of the whole business, we'd like to see it.

<"And So, It Ends, Take I ..."/The Reckoner>

"Rise like Lions after slumber

In unvanquishable number,

Shake your chains to earth like dew

Which in sleep had fallen on you –

Ye are many – they are few."

<"The Masque Of Anarchy,"
Percy Bysshe Shelley>

<iv.>

So where does all this last-minute reflection leave us, exactly? We all know what happens with New Year's resolutions. We promise plenty of them, yet rarely follow through on most of them. More often than not, we find the rock rolling back downhill, after expending a considerable effort to move it a millimeter, or so it seems -- one step forward, 20 steps back. Maybe years should come with terms and conditions, instead of blips on a calendar, once the relevant number of them has expired.

Certainly, the immediate future doesn't look terribly promising, amid threats of war with Venezuela; continued public kidnappings by goon squads, masked up like '30s-era bank robbers; ongoing economic stagnation, and greedflation, that leave millions frozen between permanent anxiety, and deer-in-the-headlights-styled depression, as they worry about getting through today, tomorrow, and next week, if circumstances allow it; and the super-rich overclass, whose denizens continue to cast a dark shadow over the mess they've created, even as they expect us to service all of their excesses, such as the environment-straining, energy-gobbling, wallet-busting data centers that they want host communities to cheerfully fund, without a peep of complaint.

Still, if we look here, and look there, we can see evidence of a growing backlash against the tentacles of Big Money, and the collateral damage it's unleashed against our lives. For instance, data center proposals have flopped soundly around the Midwest, in settings as large as South Bend, IN, and their rural counterparts (Howell Township, MI). The current debate swirling around them is simply the microchip equivalent of the conflicts over megafarms in the 1990s.

Growing numbers of young people are looking for off-ramps away from the virtual walled gardens that knee-bending oligarchs like Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg crafted specially for them, as evidence continues to pile up against letting the dog wag the tail nonstop. The dry detachment of the '90s-era slacker pose has given way to a rawer, more insistent brand of activism, particularly against the siren song of social media -- because when you're the product, that joke no longer feels so funny and cutting edge anymore.

The political classes, particularly the Republican variety, are doing what courageous counterparts from past decades have done -- scramble for the exits. At last count, 10 US Senators and 43 Congressional Representatives are hanging up their gavels, either for the far less strenuous pastures of full-time lobbying, or running for other offices that seem more enticing (and less dysfunctional). For them, the prospect of defending an increasingly chaotic presidency no longer seems like a bet worth taking, even if its chief hatchet men like Russ Vought (see link below) seem hellbent on trying to prove otherwise. If that profile doesn't motivate us to agitate for a more balanced, lived America than the gleaming, steaming shit sandwich on offer, nothing ever will.

Undoubtedly, the short term picture will feel darker and dimmer before we ever reach the promised land. If there's a silver lining, it's that all of these heinous have been fully and mercilessly exposed. No longer can the super-rich write off criticisms of their doings as so much "class warfare," when they're declaring it on the rest of us. No longer can the far right scream about "that liberal media," when they're buying up so much of that space. No longer can the apostles of trickle-down economics and endless power grabs tout them as the answer to all our ills, blessed by a government bent on imposing its will to a degree not seen since the Civil War -- or, as Lincoln stated, on the eve of that conflict: "You will rule or ruin in all events."

Imagine a society not driven solely by the brutish business of survival. Imagine a world where every move we make doesn't feel like taking a cold shower, once the grimy deed is done. Imagine a more balanced lifestyle that doesn't revolve constant toiling on the hamster wheel, for the privilege of giving away what little we take home, to these shadowy panther kleptocrats playing dominoes with our lives. Imagine the prospect of one job -- instead of multiple, energy-draining ones -- that allows sufficient funds for life's necessities, and time enough for personal pursuits that enrich the occupant's life, rather than constantly chipping away at it.

All of those things are only possible when we stop writing them off as impossible pipe dreams, and wishes that we cannot hope to achieve in our beleaguered lifetimes. Let us take this spirit with us, as we confront all the double-barreled uncertainties and social ills on offer for 2026, and put them to the test. Those who stood in our shoes in times of greater crises, from the Civil War, to the Great Depression, the Civil Rights era, and beyond, would expect nothing else. And nothing less. --The Reckoner

Links To Go

Abraham Lincoln: Cooper Union Speech:
https://housedivided.dickinson.edu/sites/lincoln/cooper-union-speech-february-27-1860/

The Nation: The Biden Scandal 

Goes Well Beyond The Aging Cover-Up:

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/biden-original-sin-democratic-party/

The Nation: The Careerism That Enabled Biden's Reelection Run...:
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/original-sin-jake-tapper-alex-thompson-biden-democrats/

Politico: New Poll Paints A Grim Picture...:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/10/poll-affordability-cost-of-living-00678076

ProPublica: The Shadow President:

https://www.propublica.org/article/russ-vought-trump-shadow-president-omb

<"And So, It Ends...Take II"/The Reckoner>

Mad King Watch (Take XI): Those Who Enabled Him: A Handy Visual Reminder

 

"Watching the reel as it comes to a close,

Brutally taking its time...

People who change for no reason at all,

It's happening all of the time...

"This is the crisis I knew had to come,
Destroying the balance I kept:
Turning around to the next set of lives,
Wondering what will come next..."
<Joy Division: "Passover">

<"Roll Call, Take I": The Reckoner>

Donate To The National Bail Fund Network

 

Once again, in the spirit of public service, we're presenting a different sort of appeal, which covers a rarely-discussed aspect of Trump's immigration terror apparatus -- what happens to those unfortunate enough to get swept under it? Like so many of these situations, getting out is way easier than getting in, particularly when it comes to the issue of bail, as in, who gets it (or who doesn't). And that's where this notice from The National Bail Fund Network comes in:

"There are no good words for what we’re living through right now. This is fascism. ICE’s violence is destroying lives across the country - and coming for anyone who dares to stand in their way. Each one of us is trying to play our part for humanity and freedom amidst chaos. As federal agents bring terror to our neighborhoods, the number of ICE prisons caging people are exploding. They are locking up our family members and friends, as well as neighbors standing up for each other.

"Immigration bond has also been limited by recent legal decisions. And while groups fight against mandatory detention in the courts, we are making sure that when bond is available to someone, it can be paid. Making sure that we fight for freedom, especially now.

"Because you have supported pre-trial, protest and immigration bond funds before, you know the transformative power of taking care of each other, of refusing to let government abandonment and fascism have the final word.

"You can make an impact right now by supporting freedom and donating to the National Bail Fund Network today!

"Donate to the Immigration Bond Freedom Fund here*, or directly to your local immigration bond fund here**. Your contribution to the Immigration Bond Freedom Fund at Community Justice Exchange will be distributed across the immigration bond funds of the National Bail Fund Network to help post bonds for individuals in immigration detention.

"Donate to the Pretrial Freedom Fund here***, or directly to your local pre-trial bail fund here. Your contribution to the Pretrial Bail Freedom Fund**** at Community Justice Exchange will be distributed across local, community bail funds in the National Bail Fund Network who are posting bail for people experiencing criminalization, including the criminalization of protest and dissent.

"With Appreciation,

The National Bail Fund Network."

As you can see, it's all fairly straightforward, though for ease of reading, you can follow the asterisks to the relevant link below, and take it from there. Bail reform is a cause that doesn't get as much attention as it should, even though money -- or, for most of us, lack of it -- greases the wheels of the legal system. It's the reason why "blacks rot in our county jails," to coin a phrase from the Crucifucks, while the overdogs who walk us suffer only a momentary lapse of their freedom.

The picture grows even starker when you other realities, such as the lack of court-appointed lawyers for civil matters. Why should people forgo basic legal rights, when the outcomes of losing an eviction case -- or a medical debt lawsuit -- can end up being just as crazy-making, and life-shattering?

If we're really serious about making a more equal America, these are the issues that we'll have to confront. But that's why we've also included the ABA editorial (see link below), which should provide plenty of food for thought. The only silver lining in all this is the backlash against the power of Big Money, which has the power to turn into a tsunami in 2026, and beyond. Donating to causes like these is one of the best ways to kick-start it. --The Reckoner

Links To Go: Community Justice Exchange/ National Bail Fund Network: https://www.communityjusticeexchange.org/en/nbfn-directory ****Community Pretrial Bail Fund Donations: https://www.communityjusticeexchange.org/en/pretrial-directory **Immigration Bond Freedom Fund Donations: https://www.communityjusticeexchange.org/en/immigration-directory *National Bail Fund Network Donations: ttps://secure.actblue.com/donate/immbondfreedom ***Pretrial Bail Freedom Fund Donations: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/pretrialfreedom The American Bar Association: Legal Help For Civil Matters Shouldn't Be Reserved For The Rich: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/legal-help-for-civil-matters-shouldnt-be-reserved-for-the-rich

They Came, They Saw, They Blinked: Some Lessons From The Shutdown Letdown

<https://www.instagram.com/p/DQWryKFDcLL/
Cartoon: Jesse Duqette
Nothing like priorities, eh?>

“We know through painful experience that freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed.” (Martin Luther King, "Letter From A Birmingham Jail," 1963)

<i.>

Now that the dust has settled on history's longest government shutdown, it's fair to ask, what did anybody learn? Not much, apparently, judging by the eight Democratic Senate renegades' eagerness to pull the plug on the whole venture -- or what appeared, at least initially, a concerted effort to slam some sort of brakes on what clearly has revealed itself as an increasingly lawless authoritarian regime. 

Certainly, that was the base's expectation, judging by a cursory glance around the old Internet, where the brush fires of "incandescent rage" -- to coin a phrase or two from Indviisible co-founder and leader, Ezra Levin -- are burning bright, as this economy tour from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's Facebook timeline suggests: 

"Don't cave in those premium tax credits are very important. It allows me to receive good health care as a self-employed individual. One year would give us the opportunity to plan."

"Explain how caving on the only leverage you have is fighting?"

"Guess they didn't understand the assignment, after those big wins on Tuesday."

"I see a primary challenger in your future. They will win."

"If caving is fighting, you're Muhammad Ali."

"If we had fought like (this) in 1941, we'd all be speaking Japanese right now."

"If you can't hold your coalition together, then you need to step down, and let someone who knows how to lead take the reins."

"Is this another example of your strongly worded letter(s)?"

"It's time for new leadership. We need younger leadership with bigger ideas that are willing to take it to Hell to fight for us."

"This was the fight. You gave in."

As the cliche goes -- tough room, right?

<A snapshot of the incandescent rage,

lighting up that Merrie Olde Internet...>

<ii.>

Good thing Uncle Chuck wasn't a standup comedian, or he'd have to find some other occupation, fast. Well, actually, he did -- this is who we're stuck with right now, as a face of the Democratic Party. Given the current dynamics, somewhere out in Standup Comedy Heaven, Desi Arnaz's distinctive accent is ringing out, loud and clear:

"Chuck-k-k-y-y-y! 

You got some 'splainin to do!" 

Progressives, meanwhile, who watched the horror of the Democratic Party's latest epic climbdown are left to shout this all too familiar refrain:

"Ai-yi-yi-yi-yyyiii!" 

All jokes apart, however, I'd support AOC's observation that the party's problems go way beyond one person. Uncle Chuck's passive aggressive combat stance, his lifelong risk aversiveness, and lack of timing are all too visible sins that we've seen  over his decades on the national stage. It's the same old soggy shit sandwich that Democratic base voters are expected to swallow, over and over and over again, stamped with their party's signature shrugs of learned helplessness: "Hey, what did you expect? We did the best we could."

That said, in the spirit of course correction, we offer some pertinent observations, for whoever wants to take them -- maybe some higher-up, maybe some staffer connected to them, or God knows, even Uncle Chuck himself, and his higher-profile cohorts -- so they may have their Jacob Marley moment, and get all those unforced errors out of their system, once and for all. Because, the way our democracy continues to backslide, we can't afford too many more.

<Resistance Works Best 

When Everyone Does It>

If it hasn't been said before, whoever's sitting in the room should say it out loud right now: a resistance can't function if everyone does their own thing. One of the striking features of the second Trump era is how many players have yet to learn that lesson. If reports are correct, the Rogue Eight Democratic Senators who joined Republicans in reopening the government seemed bent on that outcome from the start; progressives apparently banked on public furor keeping them onboard.

They guessed wrong, but the lesson is clear enough, as any number of historic examples tell us. One of the classic examples is the British miners' strike of 1984, which wasn't universally observed -- especially in the Nottinghamshire region, whose coal pits ranked among the most profitable, with the best-paid miners. Workers there refused to join their counterparts, convinced that Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher would never dare to close them. Of course, once the miners gave in, the Iron Lady rewarded their backwards devotion by ensuring they were the first pits to shut down.

<Set Clear Goals 

& Expectations>

Government shutdowns, when they do happen, are bare-knuckled, ball-breaking, brutal affairs. Some commentators have suggested that caving to Republican demands -- voting for the so-called continuing resolution that locks in the Medicare cuts, and other ghastly aspects of their so-called "Big Beautiful Bill," rammed through earlier this year -- was the only option. They weren't going to negotiate on extending the Affordable Care Act subsidies at the centerpiece of the shutdown fight, so why bother with it?

Friends and relatives who work for the feds have suggested likewise to me, saying that an extended standoff wasn't worth continuing to miss paychecks, racking up debt, or risking foreclosure. Then why drag them through those ordeals, without some well-defined red lines, and an appropriate endgame? Giving up the "good fight" after such a lengthy tussle (43 days) only makes the morning after taste all the sourer.

<Timing Is Everything>

If the shutdown's end is a Schumer move, it would mark the second time he's struggled with that issue. Knowing when to keep the powder dry (or not) is among the trickiest skills for any politician to master, as we saw in March, when Uncle Chuck tripped over himself to announce -- a full day, no less, before the proverbial five minutes to midnight deadline -- that Democrats wouldn't trigger a shutdown.

The fallout is even stickier this time, coming after a nationwide electoral rout of Republicans serving a certain orange cult leader, whose numbers continue to drop. Surely, didn't those volunteers who worked to ensure the marquee candidates' victories -- Mamdani, Sherrill, and Spanberger, plus their state and local counterparts -- deserve better? Apparently, Uncle Chuck fretted about this issue, too, telling his defectors to wait at least until after Election Day passed -- or risk depressing turnout. Otherwise, the donkey party's latest climbdown would have looked even ghastlier than it eventually did.

<Treat Hardship

As A Feature, Not A Bug>

We've already addressed this issue, but the point bears repeating. No major anti-authoritarian movement can succeed when it fractures, whether through circumstances, or some "other shoe" dropping on them from above. When we talk about outright autocracies, the unpleasant reality is that a fearsome toll often accompanies their overthrow. 

Examples abound, like the Romanian Revolution of 1989, which claimed 1,104 lives in the struggle to end Nicole Ceaucescu's long-standing tyranny. That's simply the acknowledged total; some estimates place it closer to 4,000 or 5,000 people, though we'll never know for sure. Such numbers stand as a reminder that the demise of autocracy carries a significant cost. Or, to put it another way, if all Trump has to do is squeeze his opponents' belies, to ensure the appropriate degree of submission ("Please don't hurt me, I give up, I give up") from them, then all this so-called resistance ends being only so much performative kayfabe.

<Underline Yer Redlines,

Then Stick To Them>

One aspect that bears repeating, and didn't get well reported, is that Democratic messaging remains as inconsistent as ever. Just look how their so-called "redlines" progressively shrank, as the shutdown unfolded. The ACA extensions merely ended up as the last redline standing, once Democratic leaders ditched their other big demands, including an end to Trump's so-called "pocket recissions" ("F#ck the power of the purse, I'll spend whatever funds you approved, only on programs that I approve"), and a reversal of the Medicaid cuts and food aid work requirements (courtesy of the "Big Ugly Bill").

The unpopularity of all these items offered a real opportunity to talk about the pathology behind them, and who's responsible for it, which leading Democrats did, to some degree, only to jettison those redlines, one by one, when the Republicans refused to engage. But that's a given with them; they don't like people pressing them to the wall, as AOC, Ro Khanna, and Tim Walz did so creatively, by holding town halls in red states whose representatives went into hiding. 

No such efforts happened this time, leaving Democrats to settle for the promise of a mid-December vote on potentially extending the subsidies, with no such commitments offered on the House side.  Which begs the question, how much negotiation did anybody actually do here? Because it sure doesn't look that way to the rank and file.

<Visions Mean Something>

One other notable takeaway is how much the Democratic Party still defines itself in reactive opposition to Trump. If someone's working up a Project 2029 for them, I haven't seen it. Aside from progressive circles, we have yet to hear Democrats offer a positive alternate, as to what kind of future they want to see -- because Trump won't be around forever, as much as he's hoping to prove otherwise, and his personality cult will likely die with him. 

This hard fact leaves a major opening to move beyond mere triage and sweep up the mess, as Democrats found themselves doing after the Reagan and Bush eras. If nothing else, the Trump era exposed the rotten underpinnings of the half-hearted neoliberalism that the donkey party embraced as the magic elixir to solving all tis problems -- and until Democrats finally part company with it, major social progress will remain "but a fleeting illusion, to be pursued, but never attained" (Bob Marley, "War").

<Workarounds Are Worth
The Price Of Admission>

Last, but not least, until Democrats move beyond the tired "percentage football" game they seem content to play -- three tries, then punt -- it's hard to imagine them capitalizing on a midterm 2026 wipeout, assuming that the Republicans will accept the results of one. Mobilizing public opinion is one of the keystones of any post-Trump strategy, which makes the eight rogue Senators' refusal to embrace it all the more head-scratching and infuriating -- none more so than Angus King, who moaned, "Standing up to Trump didn't work."

It's the sort of clueless response that begs the question, "Well, then what exactly is your job, if you don't feel like fighting back?" Hopefully, Mainers will finally retire King when his next election comes up, because if this fight demonstrated anything, it's that the younger generation needs to occupy those types of leadership roles, more than ever -- and sooner, not later.

Because people are tired of hearing that same old broken record ("We can't. We can't. We can't."), from the same old people continuing to play it. They deserve better refrains than that singularly monotonous signature refrain of failure after failure, excuse after excuse, without nothing to show for it, except the latest litany of promises, which will be broken as soon as the ink dries.

<Ain't that the truth?
Cue the cliche: yup, yup, and yup, again...>

<Coda>

The Trauma Man, Russ Vought, will come back swinging his scythe, with yet another agency or department in his sights, as millions of Americans stand to lose their food stamps or their health insurance coverage, knowing full well that no cavalry is coming to relieve their misery -- at least right away. Trump can once again gloat that he forced his enemies, real or imagined, to give in without giving up anything in return.

And as for the Rogue Eight, I leave them with these words from Martin Luther King to ring forever in their ears, loudly and long, as their last-minute act of treachery looms forever large, words that seem more relevant than ever today: 

“Courage is an inner resolution to go forward despite obstacles. Cowardice is submissive surrender to circumstances. Courage breeds creativity; Cowardice represses fear, and is mastered by it. Cowardice asks the question, 'Is it safe?' Expediency asks the question, 'Is it politic?' Vanity asks the question, 'Is it popular?' But conscience asks the question, 'Is it right?'" 

We'll see who actually learns these lessons Time will tell, soon enough.--The Reckoner