Of all the words so carelessly bandied about on Election Night 2024, the M-word -- as in, Mandate -- topped the list. Breathless as always, the talking heads rushed to skip ahead of their skis, and give one Donald J. Trump his coveted Golden Mandate Trophy, crown him Emperor, and essentially bend their knee to the poor man's king (as they see him). Or, as a near-hysterical Van Jones howled, in a widely-quoted headline on CNN: "We Were The Idiots."
I agree, though not for the reasons that he surmises, as we'll elaborate on, momentarily. But for a fair hint, you can take the nostalgia tour of what we said in 2016:
Same as it was ever was...
Same...as it...
e-e-e-e-v-v-errr was!"
Hang on a minute, though. Reality always serves up a more complex picture, and this election cycle is no exception. Because, guess what? Trump, in a repeat of his 2016 electoral performance, has slowly fallen back to Earth.
And, while it means that Harris remains the bridesmaid, not the bride, these incoming figures should give pause to those who celebrate a Trump restoration as some kind of widely-desired event:
With 152.7 million votes now counted, Trump's overall share of the popular vote has fallen below 50%, according to the Cook Political Report. He now leads Harris by a far smaller margin, with 76,371,044 million votes (49.99%), versus 73,667,048 million for Harris (48.22%). A decisive margin, yes, but hardly the epic wipeout it seemed last week. Or, for that matter, in 2016. (Reckoner's Note. 12/9/24: Harris finished with 74.9 million votes, or 48.4%, to 77.2 million votes for Trump, or 49.9%. A clear enough margin, for sure, but far short of an epic face plant.)
What's more, Trump's overall victory margin (popular vote and Electoral College) is the third smallest, since 1888, as Richard Stengel, former Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs noted in his Twitter feed. (Sorry, Herr Musk, as far as I'm concerned, the letter X belongs to the classic LA punk band. Not you!)
"(Only JFK in '60 and Nixon in '68 were smaller). If 238K votes in the blue wall states had been different, he would have lost," Stengel pointed out. "Not a mandate."
Trump will become the second Republican Presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote, though his margin will only rank among the 44th best, out of 51 elections, since 1824. However, Trump will re-enter the White House with a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, 221-214, which leaves him little margin for error.
Republicans hold a stronger hand in the U.S. Senate (53-47), but it's mainly due to an electoral map that forced Democrats to defend so many more seats during this election cycle (19, versus 11 for Republicans, and four independents). Embattled Democrats won four battleground states (AZ, MI, NV, WI) that Trump carried this time around, leaving his cheerleaders with "some 'splainin' to do," as Ricky used to tell Lucy. Not that they will try, mind you, but the thought is nice.
In fact, the Republicans' path to undoing the Democrats' 51-49 paper majority largely came through two solidly red states (OH, WV), whereas Kari Lake's second straight faceplant in Arizona typifies their recent Senate track record. It's even less impressive, when we consider Pennsylvania, where 65,000 voters lit their ballots on fire for the Green Party candidate.
That's almost twice the margin separating Bob Casey from the likely winner, David McCormick, but no matter. Democrats will have to stop being so gentle to their spoilers. Still, the result underscores another trend that characterized this election cycle -- self-sabotage.
What do we mean, exactly? Well, this has definitely been a remarkable election, but not in the most positive, best elevated sense of the word.
We have seen Arab Americans in Dearborn restore the very man whom they view as unsympathetic to their cause -- 42,000 dead in Gaza, and counting. Unfortunately, while they succeeded in punishing the Democrats, elevating Netanyahu's fan bro buddy takes their cause off the table till 2028. The moral of the story? Voting backward doesn't move you forward.
We have seen Latinos break big time for the very man obsessed with rooting them willy nilly out of the country, who pledges the largest mass deportation in our history. The moral of the story? If you're not at the table, you're on the menu, so why put yourself there willingly?
And, despite the Democratic nominee's singular emphasis of reproductive rights, in general -- and abortion rights, in particular -- we have seen suburban women also break, generally speaking, for the very man who brags about taking them away. The moral of the story? All the vague reassurances from a self-styled authoritarian father figure won't save you from his unhinged whims.
I honestly don't blame people for feeling discouraged right now. Or, as my sister -- who spent every moment of her spare time canvassing for Kamala Harris, and others like her -- put it, "Every time we take two steps forward, we seem to take one step back."
But we also agree, there's no sense in dwelling on those sentiments. All we can do is learn whatever lessons present themselves, and try to forge ahead. Pick a period in our history, any period, and what follows the latest advancement? A furious backlash, driven by those who don't accept it, and resent the notion of coming to terms with it.
Like it or not, the forces behind this pugilistic state of permanent aggrievement aren't going away, and aren't willingly going to hand back whatever power they grub away for themselves. All we can do is hope that we're strong enough to seize the moment, whenever or however it presents itself, and above all else, equal to the task. We expect no more, and we demand no less. --The Reckoner
Links To Go:
The David M. Katz Poetry Blog: "Mandate, My Ass":
https://davidmkatzpoet.com/blog/mandate-my-ass
WhoSampled:
https://www.whosampled.com/sample/178978/Le-Dust-Sucker-Mandate-My-Ass-Gil-Scott-Heron-B-Movie/
[Where to find Gil Scott-Heron's brilliant takedown of Reagan's electoral win, that wound up being sampled in Le Dust Sucker's 2004 sendup of George W. Bush's victory -- what's the saying here? "Everything is old, is new again?" Or, "The more things change..."? Or, "History doesn't repeat, it rhymes?" Take your pick.]
Yahoo News: Popular Vote Totals
Make Trump's Mandate Looks Like A Mirage:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/maddow-blog-popular-vote-totals-130359790.html
(Reckoner's Note: Included, for the record. I stopped watching MSNBC in 2024, after seeing their complicity in the shanking of the Bernie movement, an impression not helped by Mira and Joe's sickening display of "obedience in advance," along with their pilgrimage, on bent knee, to Mar-A-Lago. I don't think Musk should be allowed to buy it, so however progressives can block it is fine with us. However, it's another reminder, as if we needed it, of the need to wrest control from a legacy media largely owned and co-opted by monied interests.]
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