Sunday, April 25, 2021

My Corona Diary (Take XXIX): K-Shaped Recovery? Looks More Like A K-Shaped Bender


 





<"You're All Invited..."
Take I/The Reckoner>

There's a lot of yearning for normality in the air, apparently, judging by how the national conversation's going lately. Cue the cliche: "If had a nickel for every time I heard the phrases, "Back to normal," "New normal," or "Return to normal," I'd be living in two mansions by now, right? To put it rather mildly. 

Maybe's that what the punditocracy feels, but I don't see it that way, nor does the Squawker, nor anybody with an IQ above room temperature. Hence, you get headlines like Saturday's word from the Associated Press: "Democrats Move Two Bills Showing Strength and Limits of Power," referring to the U.S. Senate's overwhelming approval of new legislation to punish Asian-American hate crimes, and the House of Representatives' vote to make Washington, DC, the fifty-first state. 

The latter bill seems likely headed for the filibuster graveyard that Republicans have ginned up with such success, to the ire of progressives like Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush, whose comment sums it up well: "Everything we love is at stake. Not just everything we love, but everything we need."

I'll circle back to that subject soon. What's worth mentioning, though, is how a different reality shows up on the ground, as Market Watch reminded us last month, in discussing how the economy is shaping up after a year-plus of pandemic fever. Outwardly, our economic situation looks like a success. On one hand, the national jobless rate has fallen from 14.7% to 6.2%, or 23 million to 10.1 million. Federal figures show 379,000 new jobs added to the national payroll, the biggest such gain in four months, Market Watch reports. 

Yet a Pew Research Center poll of 10,000 adults paints a starkly different picture. Fifty-one percent said COVID-19 will make it harder to reach their financial goals, while 17 percent expected to "put off" retirement, and seven percent say they'll have to postpone it. I'm not sure what the difference between "put off" and "postpone" means, since the two terms are interchangeable to me, but suffice to say, look for plenty more older men and women to toil as gas station cashiers or Walmart greeters for the foreseeable future.

More than half who rated themselves worse off financially don't expect to recover until 2023. About 26 percent think they'll need three to five years, while six percent guess it'll take 10 years. Twelve percent doubt their finances will ever return to pre-COVID levels. 

As grim as these stats sound, they've given birth to another term that's getting thrown around a lot lately: K-shaped recovery, or an economic rebound that affects different segments of the population differently, and unequally. Hence, the unsurprising finding that lower-income participants are more likely to borrow from friends and family members, burn through rainy day savings, rack up debt, and try to reduce spending. 

What does this mean? "There's a very clear divide based on income in terms of how people are experiencing this," frets Juliana Horowitz, Pew's associate director of social trends research. Our friends at Pew are masters of understatement, aren't they?

Still, all jokes apart, it's not to contrast the feelings of the starving and struggling millions with the newly-minted Democratic majority's constant fretting of, well, however much they'd love to pass voting rights protections, student loan debt forgiveness, prescription drug pricing reform, and radical newfangled stuff like that.... Well, heck, we just can't, no matter who supports it (see the relevant Down With Tyranny link below).

Gol dern it, that sneaky McConnell feller won't let us do it. You can't expect us to drop the filibuster, or find a workaround for it! You might rile all them Republican polecats up! We can't risk that! Push Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to fess up, and change their minds about the filibuster? Aw, shucks, we don't have the gumption. You don't want to get 'em all mad at us, do you?

OK, Centrist Sally, I hear your griping and sniping. Yes, Moderate Mickey, we're swimming against all kinds of structural difficulties, not least, the Manchin-Sinema dynamic duo's dogged insistence on leaving the filibuster alone -- though I suspect it's already been pointed out to them, it's hardly in their own best interest, if they're serious about governing, or getting their pet projects across the finish line. That's a big if, in my mind. We'll see.

At times, though, I wonder if the Democratic Party will ever shake off the sclerotic aroma that's choking it. This is an entity that treats its rock stars like dirt, as Congresswoman Katie Porter found out when she was summarily removed from the House Financial Services Committee, supposedly because you can only serve on two committees deemed "exclusive"; in reality, because she ran afoul of entrenched interests. 

So no more whiteboards, and no more pointed questions to make those banksters squirm, undoubtedly fueled by demands that somebody "do something" about this nuisance and this pest. I suspect they found a receptive ear in Committee Chair "Kerosene Maxine" Waters, who willingly takes corporate PAC money ($210,329 in the first quarter of 2019 alone, as Politico reports).

All this grubby back room deal making brings to mind a classic quote about how power is perceived. I remember coming across it as a preteen, in John Kobler's classic biography, Capone (1972). The quote comes one from the federal gumshoes, as they begin trying to build their tax evasion case against the Chicago ganglord. 

The investigator describes his impressions of Al Capone indulging one of his favorite pastimes (gambling poorly) at a Florida race track, with "a jewelled moll on either side and greeting a parade of fawning worshippers who came to shake his hand like the Shah of Persia," he laments. "I said, 'Good god, when a country constable wants a man, he just walks up and says, you're pinched! Here I am with the whole US government behind me, but I'm as powerless as a canary."

As you can see, these issues are hardly new, though I can think of one big difference between the world of today, and Capone's peak years (effectively, 1925-29). At least the feds finally convicted Capone in October 1931. Neither they, nor their state counterparts, have mussed the few hairs left on former President Trump's head. Time will tell there, too, I guess.

So has the canary sung yet for Senate Democrats? I don't think we're there yet, but it's high time that we start listening to those nameless millions, who've suffered and lost so much, since the pandemic turned our world upside down, and left so many high and dry, without any kind of cavalry, real or imagined, to rescue them. Because, as Ms. Bush so eloquently says, everything we love is at stake. And everything we need. Remember that, the next time you see those hands wring. --The Reckoner


<"You're All Invited..."
Take II/The Reckoner>


Links To Go (It's 11:00 O'Clock,
Do You Know Where Your Majority Is?):

Down With Tyranny
Progressive Policy Is Popular -- So Why
Can't Unified Democratic Government Pass Any Of It?:

Politico: Wall Street Critic Waters
Rakes In Corporate Campaign Money:

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