Monday, May 18, 2020

My Corona Diary (Take V): The Number Crunch Continues

<"It's Raining Claims
(Deny, Deny, Deny)":
Take I
The Reckoner>

<i.>

One of my favorite sayings from the business world is this one: "Numbers don't lie. They are what they are." Makes sense, right? A business either makes money, or it doesn't. A plan either comes to fruition, or it doesn't. A product either sells, or it doesn't.

But that's not how the Trump administration seems to view it, as states race to reopen, amid mixed signals from his underlings, and lack of clear-cut guidelines. On one hand, U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar claimed Sunday it's safe to reopen, because half of all counties nationwide haven't had a signal COVID-19 death, the Washington Post reported.

On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome S. Powell told "60 Minutes" -- also on Sunday -- that the economy may not fully recover for another 18 months. However, while he acknowledged that unemployment may reach Great Depression-era levels of 25 percent, he then went on to claim, "We can get back to a healthy economy fairly quickly."

So who should we believe? Go back to the numbers: 89,932 deaths, 281,000 recovered cases, and 1.52 million confirmed cases nationwide. That includes 785 new deaths and 19,731 cases reported since Saturday. Here in Michigan, we're looking at 4,891 deaths and 51,142 confirmed cases (or 11 and 638 more, respectively, since Saturday). Essentially, if we look at history as our guide, we're well on our way to doubling our Vietnam War-era casualty rate. If that sounds like success, then failure can't be so bad.

For my relation who works in state government, the current crisis might well amount to a feeling of total job security, or as close as close to it as you get. But she didn't sound so thrilled when we discussed it Sunday night. That's because her agency now has 41 million outstanding claims waiting for someone to process them. As of last week, it stood at 28 million.


"Most of them are from Appalachia, and big cities, like Cleveland. And most of them are 50, still, applying for whatever they hope they can get." She sighed. "That's about two years' worth of work." She sighed once more. "Nobody's in any hurry to let us back in the building."


<"It's Raining Claims 
(Deny, Deny, Deny)":
Take II
The Reckoner>

<ii.>
There's no lack of objective measurements to guide our evaluation of how our current power structure is managing the current pandemic. Look at the struggles that millions of Americans are facing, as they try to claim unemployment benefits. What are they getting for their trouble? A bureaucratic maze of conflicting deadlines and instructions. Call centers and computer systems that can't handle the overload. Outdated websites that only aggravate the long-standing systemic problems that nobody ever bothered to correct.

The frustration with Michigan's unemployment is already being singled out as the poster child of a dysfunctional system, which is why I've included the link below. As you'll see, much of the aggravation deals from changes made by former Governor Rick Snyder, who cut the Unemployment Insurance Agency's staff by a third, imposed numerous rule changes that made it harder to claim benefits, and rolled out an automated system that falsely accused 400,000 Michiganders of benefit fraud, even though it was wrong 90 percent of the time.

Not surprisingly, of the 1.3 million who have applied -- including yours truly -- only a quarter of them, or 1.1 million, have gotten their benefits. On one level, this figure reflects the usual granite-hearted approach that typifies Republicans like Synder, whose mantra ("Do it the cheapest, nastiest way possible") should feel distressingly familiar to anyone who unwittingly drank his poisoned water in Flint. It also typifies the bare-knuckled grudges that power the GOP calculus: They're nonwhite, they're not making money, they're not part of the nuclear family, and they'll never vote for us, anyway. So fuck 'em.


On a deeper level, though, the current crisis has totally shredded the pretense of our "safety net." Guess what? It's nowhere nearly as strong as the pundits claimed. How can we even talk about a recovery, with so many needless deaths, and so many out of work, or barely working at all? How is an adjunct army of millions, who don't have a voice, and have remained largely invisible until the pandemic broke, ever going to create wealth for itself, let alone a nation? What's the point of dangling out promises like deferred payments, or payment plans, when you can't make your monthly nut, to begin with?

These are the questions that we need to ask, and demand answers. Here's one final figure to ponder: we have more deaths than any other nation, of which 17,000 are African-American. Of the 39 states for which data has been collected, African-Americans accounted for just 13 percent of the population, yet 27 percent of the deaths, the Washington Post stated Sunday.

Remember, numbers don't lie. They are what they are. Yet Trump and his misfit crew stoutly maintain, "Mission accomplished." Therein lies the current national disconnect. --The Reckoner


Links To Go (Imagine That,
A Power Structure That Hoovers Up Our Money)

Bridge Michigan: Coronavirus Tracker
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now

Detroit Free Press
How Rick Snyder Made It Harder

To Collect Unemployment Benefits:
https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/columnists/nancy-kaffer/2020/05/15/rick-snyder-michigan-unemployment-fund-uia/5182208002/

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