"Well, ain't we
a pair, raggedy man?"
So here we are, on the eve of the debate, over the biggest voting rights overhaul in decades (hence, the above quote, as the "drive it home" line, from Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome). For those who haven't tuned in, I'm referring to the S1: For The People Act, that aims to safeguard voting rights, strengthen dark money and lobbying disclosures, and ban gerrymandering (redrawing political boundaries to unfairly favor one party over another). I'm not rehashing that ground here, so see the links below for a comprehensive overview of what the law actually contains.
For The People's sprawling nature has drawn criticism in some quarters, such as a provision that grants statehood to Washington, D.C., for instance. Maybe so, but I'm fine with it, conceptually. It's the kind of big and bold legislation we needed decades ago, and not surprisingly, what our increasingly sclerotic system seems perfectly poised to strangle, mainly through the Republicans' preferred legislative bludgeon -- the filibuster.
You know something bizarre is happening when one person (Nominally Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, Republican Mitch McConnell) can exercise such an outsized effect on our nation's course through the mere tactic of preventing debate on this bill, or that one, no matter how badly needed it is, nor how well it might poll. To me, the filibuster is the perfect expression of the oft-attributed Cornelius Vanderbilt quote, "The public be damned."
Whatever happens to the law today, I can confidently draw three inferences. First, the issue won't disappear. In terms of our democratic status, it's still five minutes to midnight, because we're seeing one party (The Republicans) morphing into a violent, authoritarian personality cult that's washed its hands of the need to uphold democratic norms.
Second, if S1 does fail, it will motivate those who still care about our democratic ideals to redouble their efforts to protect them. To those who shrug off such issues, I would only ask: have we really come this far down, after 250 years, to join the likes of Hungary, Poland and Turkey, whose duly elected repressors are busily turning themselves into dystopian hellscapes? Do we really deserve to sink so low, to concede such things without a fight?
Third, if nothing else, the debate about S1, and how best to protect voting rights, has jump-started a useful conversation about the less useful aspects of our system, and the history that's brought us to this pass.
We didn't get here overnight, and the warning bells rang loud and clear, all along. We either didn't hear them, or preferred not to think how much they were clandging off the hook. In that spirit, I offer this list, to remind us of the moral: take care, and take heed, and pay attention to what's going on. To do any less is to continue sleepwalking straight to disaster.
<"Be Reasonable..."
The Reckoner><The Ten Tipping Points: Pt. I>
1. Bush v. Gore (2000). Staring down a 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that shuts down recounts in Florida, the decisive state in the Presidential election, Democratic nominee Al Gore concedes "for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy" (12/13/00). Republicans celebrate the benefits of a closely divided high court that works to their advantage. They also learn, when push comes to shove, that their rivals won't push back.
2. Georgia passes the first voter ID photo requirement (2005). Governor Sonny Perdue, who'll parlay his self-dealing skills to serve as Agriculture Secretary in the Trump administration, signs the nation's first law that ties producing a photo ID to casting your ballot. The law reduces acceptable ID formats from 17 to six, all requiring a photo (such as a driver's license or passport). As the decades roll on, Republicans will increasingly weaponize such requirements, which critics see aimed at suppressing the votes of elderly, minorities, and people with disabilities.
3. Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010). The Supreme Court holds, 5-4, that independent campaign spending limits on billionaires, corporations and political action committees violate free speech rights. The ruling effectively opens the floodgates for dark money to buy elections, netting an estimated electoral advantage of four to 10 percentage points for Republicans in statehouse races alone, according to several independent studies. Critics like Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson blast the outcome as "the worst decision since the Dred Scott case." Senator Olympia Snowe isn't far behind (R-ME), saying the ruling "does a terrible disservice to our country."
4. Project REDMAP (2010). The Republican Party spends $30 million to tighten its national and statewide grip on redistricting, with special emphasis on flipping Democratic majorities in swing states (Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). "Packing," or overcrowding safe Democratic districts with disproportionate amounts of minority voters, becomes the preferred method.
The tactic allows allow Republicans to control the U.S. House of Representatives by a 33-seat margin from 1995 to 2006, despite winning 1.4 million fewer votes nationally than Democrats. A wave of Democratic losses in the 2010 Congressional midterms further aggravates the situation at the state level, where Republicans will eventually control 26 delegations. Like many GOP maneuvers, REDMAP proceeds in plain sight, with little or no effort made to counter it.
5. Shelby County v. Holder (2013). In yet another 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court strikes down the US Voting Rights Act's preclearance rule, which required local and state authorities to get federal approval for any significant changes in election laws or districts. (The title of the case refers to the parties involved, Shelby County, AL, and then-US Attorney General Eric Holder).
Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts asserts that preclearance is no longer needed, because the historical record no longer "shows anything approaching the 'pervasive,' 'flagrant,' 'widespread,' and 'rampant' discrimination that faced Congress in 1965," when it passed the Voting Rights Act, he argues.
Critics see this reasoning as tantamount to suggesting that preclearance no longer applies, because racism no longer flourishes. Whatever the intent of Roberts's rhetoric, local and state election authorities can now change rules and conditions -- like polling place hours and locations -- as they see fit, often to pure partisan advantage, as seen in the Georgia gubernatorial race of 2018, for instance.
<"...Demand The Impossible":
The Reckoner>
<The Ten Tipping Points, Pt. II>
6. Republican domination of federal court appointments (2014-2020). On becoming Senate Majority Leader in 2014, McConnell focuses on appointing as many federal judges as possible, to the point of shortening breaks, and pushing through nominations after Trump's 2020 electoral defeat, to accomplish the goal. His success is most vividly felt at the Supreme Court level, where Trump appoints three justices (Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorusch, Brett Kavanaugh) during his presidency (2016-2020).
Less visible and less noted is the impact on other federal courts. By time he departs the Oval Office, Trump ends up naming 226 federal judges, including 30 percent of the nation's 13 circuit courts, and a quarter of its 94 district courts, amid vehement protests about the various nominees' ethical conflicts, lack of trial experience, and zealousness to the Republican cause. Like most Trump appointees, they're not a terribly diverse group (76 percent white, 84 percent male). In any case, the impact leaves Democrats on the defensive, as they've been for much of the past 30 years.
7. The aging of America's political class. The growing race, gender and sexuality diversity of Congress isn't making itself felt in one other crucial demographic -- age. The average incoming Congressman and Senator are now 58 and 64 years, respectively, figures show, with Baby Boomers making up roughly 70 percent of both bodies (and just 21 percent of the US population).
In a further ironic twist, the 2020 election saw Republicans add more new Millennial and Generation X members (28) to the House than Democrats (10). The result is a gerontocracy dominated by people who'll likely never face the consequences of whatever legislation they pass, leaving Millennials, the most educated generation in history, with few immediate or obvious ways of pursuing policy goals like student loan debt relief.
8. Abuse of the filibuster. Most commonly associated with killing civil rights legislation, the continuing escalation of filibusters -- and cloture motions needed to cut them off -- has escalated to mind-boggling levels. Between 1917 and 1970, there were less than 60 cloture votes overall, rising to 53 of them per year from 2000 to 2018, and peaking with 218 in 2013-14, according to the Center for American Progress.
As a result, the Senate has become one of the world's least representative bodies, especially if a 60-vote supermajority is required for even routine matters like appropriation or appointment items. One snapshot can be seen from the 117th Congress (2017-18), which saw 168 cloture votes, with only 52 bills actually passing.
9. The January 6th GOP-led insurrection, and failure to fully account for it. The storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 represented outgoing President Trump's last, desperate attempt to overturn his electoral loss to Democrat Joe Biden. With cries of "stop the steal" from Trump's base ringing in their ears, Republicans have worked hard to consign the insurrection into the proverbial memory hole, as demonstrated by their successful recent filibuster against the creation of a joint commission to investigate it.
Six months after the attack, as Democrats strive to marshal some kind of alternative investigative process, Americans await answers to many crucial questions, such as how the insurrectionists obtained such detailed knowledge of the Capitol building's physical layout. On a more ominous level, the actions of Trump and his supporters broke decisively with the long-standing American concept of the loser peacefully yielding power to the winner. Without a full accounting of the events involved, and an appropriate response to whatever facts they reveal, the door remains open for a future nominee with a populist authoritarian bent to try repeating the trick.
10. The Republicans' national war against voting rights. As of May 14, legislators have introduced 389 bills in 48 states that restrict voting in various ways, the Brennan Center reports. Twenty-two have already been enacted, while 61 were moving through committee hearings, or passed at least one chamber.
The measures range from drastic limitations on absentee or mail-in balloting, to provisions that would allow states to replace election officials who don't comply with their wishes, as we've seen in Arizona, whose legislature passed a bill revoking Presidential election results. In other cases, Trump supporters are running for Secretary of State positions in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada that would them to control the outcomes of elections, paving the way for a far more toxic repeat of what happened in 2020.
History reminds us that a system cannot stand such constant stresses, without a determined and decisive response to tamp them down. And that brings me back where I started. Here we are, and here we stand, as the For The People Act either gets an impassioned debate, or a one-way ticket to "Grim Reaper" McConnell's legislative graveyard.
Will the players involved actually meet the moment, or hit the snooze button on their clock radio, roll over, and drift back to sleep? We'll know soon enough, I guess. --The Reckoner
Links To Go (Hurry, Hurry,
Before Democracy Evaporates For Good)
Brennan Center For Justice:
Annotated Guide To For The People Act 2021:
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/policy-solutions/annotated-guide-people-act-2021
Brennan Center For Justice:
The For The People Act: Get The Facts:
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/people-act-separating-fact-fiction?ms=gad_for%20the%20people%20act_522026824737_8626214133_126275776310&gclid=Cj0KCQjwlMaGBhD3ARIsAPvWd6i87KgTvhrivg-vg2SvGu4nZRGRythjz-n-Qn5vzMcYpFRmX5vRpowaAtdjEALw_wcB
NPR: White House Says Democrats
Might Revisit Filibuster Rules
If Voting Rights Bill Fails:
https://www.npr.org/2021/06/21/1008872664/democrats-filibuster-voting-rights-bill
The Center For American Progress:
The Impact Of The Filibuster On Federal Policymaking:
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2019/12/05/478199/impact-filibuster-federal-policymaking/?_ga=2.107948034.1486397242.1624358765-913345892.1624358765
