Wednesday, December 18, 2024

United Healthcare Wants Feedback: No Prior Authorization Needed!


<What they don't say is important
than what they admit. Right?
Courtesy: Reckoner's inbox>

<i.>
Of all the oddities that wash up in my inbox, this image (above) ranks among the oddest
-- in light of what's happened, with the Brian Thompson shooting, and outpouring of support for his killer, Luigi Mangione. Judging by the latest twists in the case -- $94,000 raised on his behalf, and his enlistment of a high-powered attorney -- a plea bargain seems out of the question, presumably.

What all this uproar will actually produce, once the courts deal with the defendant, is anybody's guess. Any high-profile killing typically results in a major ramp up of the security state, one that already needs little excuse to impose itself in our lives -- making executive murder a less than ideal solution, for those seeking meaningful changes to our freeze-dried status quo.

Anyhow, United Healthcare (UHC) allegedly wants my feedback. They're even willing to give me a toothbrush for my time, though -- as someone whose sidelines include surveys for cash -- a little incentive payment might work a bit better.

Still, the wording and the timing are particularly unfortunate, since United hasn't exactly earned a reputation for generosity towards its (captive) customer base -- to put it most tactfully -- nor a particular willingness to go the last mile, in giving them what they need.

Quite the opposite, in fact. Media reports suggest that United denies claims at rates -- up to one-third, according to the Forbes link archive below -- that exceed the norm, even for its industry, leading to tensions with customers, hospitals, and physicians. 

At the same time, United ranks first among insurers, with an estimated market share of $215 million, fueled by the most expensive premiums nationwide ($631 per month). Are these developments related? United executives and PR flacks will likely deflect blame, or plead ignorance. As for me, I'll go with the word from my good TV friend, Saul Goodman: "I'm gonna out on a limb here, and say that it's been known to happen."


<A sampling of the response to the Thompson shooting:
https://www.downwithtyranny.com/>

<ii.>
Given how miserable the system is designed to make people, is it surprising that a high-profile CEO finally tastes the tip of a bullet? Not particularly. The real surprise is that it didn't happen long ago, since -- the Obama era's signature health law aside -- much of the reek underlying the whole rotten structure remains untouched.

Hence, the same endless arguments -- who should pay, how much, for what, and so on -- rage on, as freely as they ever dud. Decades of well-intentioned platitudes have barely made a dent in them. This includes the unfortunate Mr. Thompson, incidentally, who solemnly agreed, at an investors meeting: "Healthcare should be easier for people."

The bigger surprise is that -- amid the politicians, trotting out all their usual boilerplate condolences -- some people are still struggling to understand the depth of anger directed at the likes of Mr. Thompson, and the industry whose interests he served so loyally, and for so long. 

And just who was Mr. Thompson, exactly? So far, the handful of stories that have trickled out paint a mixed picture. Small town Iowa boy, fierce protectionist made good, yet one apparently riven by the stresses of life that plague the excessively advantaged. He had racked up an impaired driving conviction in 2017, for which he was placed on probation (naturally); he'd also bought a home in 2018, and had begun living apart from his wife, and two boys (predictably).

Such are the stresses of the overprivileged. Yet the handful of quotes I've seen attributed to him (
He understood that the public was frustrated with what they perceived the company’s actions to be") suggest someone who seemed less bothered about the inequities baked into the system, than the potential for public resentment to cramp his style -- and, that of his colleagues -- at the box office.

For all the angst attributed to him posthumously, Thompson had been dogged by accusations of insider trading, and United's practices had been the focus of negative reports by the Department of Health and Human Services, and the U.S.Senate. Whatever concerned Thompson privately -- and we only have his colleagues' word for that, frankly -- continued to happen publicly. As Saul Goodman would have say -- "It's been known to happen."

The graphic below is only a mild sampling of what I've seen, from deep diving the Internet; I'm sure you've seen plenty of your own examples, ranging from the merely black ("Prior authorization required, before thoughts and prayers"), to the truly scabrous, like this dark nugget, served up by "The Daily Show"'s Ronny Chieng: 

“But now, the cops just need to narrow down their list of suspects to anyone in America who hates their health-care plan and has access to guns. Should be solved in no time.”



<More popular rage, served sunny side down:
https://www.downwithtyranny.com/>

<iii.>
I, too, have experienced the frustration of "deny, depose, defend," only from a different direction -- when I took a job with a federal agency, only to discover that bills demanding full payment, typically in triple-digit sums, kept landing on my door mat. Almost $1,700, in fact, once I totaled them up -- eight claims, in all.

When I gently inquired as to why, I discovered that this particular agency chose to self-fund its particular insurance plan. Unfortunately, such plans aren't considered insurance, according to the Affordable Care Act, one of many "get out" clauses that the industry carved out for itself, as part of its eternal crusade to futureproof against the few reforms our political class seems willing to allow us.

This, despite a cover page phrased along these lines: "Want to better understand your healthcare program?" This, despite a dizzying two-page list of exclusions -- nearly three dozen of them, ranging from abortion and drug treatment, to dental, hospice and hospital care, physicals, skilled nursing care, transportation, and vision. All of which begs the obvious question, "Well, then, what do you cover, exactly?" Not much, apparently.

In the end, I wound up enlisting my state representative, plus the Attorney General, and state insurance office, to press the faux insurer for action, having heard nothing about my appeal. Eventually, they suggested that more documentation was needed to fully evaluate my case, though they did refund $247 on one claim, and reduced another from $475, to zero. 

So, in that sense, some justice has been done, though I have yet to hear what's happened with the other half dozen claims -- whether we're talking about the original appeal, or further complaints and follow-ups that I filed. There have been no other developments on that score, since last summer; maybe that's just as well.

My "Insurance Pie Fight" folder, as I've labeled it, is already a quarter-inch think; at this point, I'm not looking for anymore additions. Of course, as someone who remains uninsured, stress is likely to come from other directions. This week, I'll have to visit my doctor at the community health clinic -- for the fourth time, I believe -- for a viral infection that's taken its time to fade, since it first flared up in June.

I currently owe $100, which is a bargain, even on the sliding scale system that determines the amount. However, due to all the other unwelcome financial surprises I've weathered, I have yet to pay on it; last time around, the receptionist got fairly aggressive about the matter, to which I had to grit my teeth, and assure her, "I just sent a check out. I'm sure they haven't gotten it yet."

I doubt if the gatekeeper at the desk bought my excuse; I honestly didn't care either way. 
At a certain level, it's all a giant game of, "Don't ask, don't tell." All that's left is for both parties to play their roles, mouth the words they don't believe, and move on.

In other words, for those still wondering why so few are grieving Mr. Thompson's demise -- and the rage against the machine he represented is boiling and bubbling, at volcanic levels -- they might do well remember another well-worn saying: "Walk a mile in my shoes." And, while we're at it, this one: "There, but for the grace of God, go you and I."

Alas, Andrew Witty, the CEO who took the knocks publicly -- and to whom Thompson was grateful for the shield it afforded him, privately -- doesn't get the memo, as this quote from his recent New York Times op-ed piece suggests: "“Together with employers, governments and others who pay for care, we need to improve how we explain what insurance covers and how decisions are made."

In other words? Stay calm, folks. Nothing to see here. There's nothing wrong with the system that's driving a screw through the middle of your spinal column. It's just a matter of some technical adjustments, and all will be good again.

He's off to a flying start, eh? I don't think so. And neither, I suspect, will the millions whose anger remains set on boil, not stun.

Until we can somehow force the insurance industry and its enablers to start from this premise, as the first step toward seriously reforming the system -- instead of papering the cracks, or tinkering around the edges -- it's doubtful that the popular rage will cool off, any time soon. 

Oh, and just for the record? I'm giving the survey a miss. Besides, I already have two toothbrushes, and don't need anymore. --The Reckoner




Links To Go (Hurry, Hurry,
Before They Deny Your Claim -- Again):

Down With Tyranny: The Bizarre Media Treatment
Of The Mangione Case:

https://www.downwithtyranny.com/post/the-bizarre-media-treatment-of-the-mangione-case  
[Included for good song by Jesse Wells -- scroll to the end to hear it!]

Forbes: The Rage And Glee
That Followed A CEO's Killing Should Ring All Alarms:

https://archive.ph/DsVqZ

The Independent:
The Daily Show Divides Viewers...:

https://www.the-independent.com/arts-entertainment/tv/news/the-daily-show-united-healthcare-ceo-murder-b2660091.html

Yahoo News/Washington Post:
Before Shooting, Brian Thompson
Worried About UnitedHealth's Negative Image:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/shooting-brian-thompson-worried-unitedhealth-205448649.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&segment_id=DY_VTO_ADS_T1&ncid=crm_19908-1475736-20241216-0&bt_user_id=GcF%2B9E2au5JSjvHLHE7dhab%2F0Jf2USx61LWvC3r6Lgy6FwK7bGSUO8MbCi%2FEGzea&bt_ts=1734367256416

Sunday, December 15, 2024

"Just Give Us Money, Folks": Rethinking A Timeworn Democratic Tactic

 

<Exhibit A, of what Kamala Harris's campaign missed most:
https://www.downwithtyranny.com>

<i.>
Not long ago, the Squawker and I found ourselves entering a classic conversation, while we were driving around, doing our usual steady diet of mindless errands. We actually find ourselves revisiting this conversation a lot lately, one that applies to this latest election spectacle, too. The dialogue went like this:

The Squawker: Boy, I thought we'd have moved out by now. It's so hard to make friends around here.

The Reckoner: Don't forget how busy they are, or so they tell you. The way they talk, you'd think they were CEOs of some company...

Squawker: Well, some of them are CEOs! And even if they're not, they're all these older Boomers. This town is crawling with them! They have endless money, and they're always going on trips, to some foreign country, or other. I can't take it anymore, I hate it here! 

Reckoner: It was like that here when I grew up. Can't say I've got a mile long invite list going, either. Still, though, you might well ask yourself this...

Squawker: What's that, exactly?

Reckoner: Here's the thing about friends, however you find them. What would you do with them, once you had them?

Squawker: What do you mean by that?

Reckoner: That's the thing, isn't it? Friendships take work to maintain, like marriages, or any other relationship. But most folks don't think about that --

Squawker: Until it's too late. I got it. (sighs) Well, I sure hope that isn't me.


<Kamala Harris, surrounded
by ghosts of Democratic Presidencies past:
How much longer will we hear the mantra,
"Just tinker 'round the edges, tinker 'round the edges?":
https://www.downwithtyranny.com>

<ii.>
Our conversation seems especially appropriate, in light of the train wreck that greeted last month's election result, followed by the existential dread that only a Trump restoration can uncork. in true 20-megaton style. It was as though 2020 had never happened, let alone, the biggest takeaway from the COVID programs that followed Trump's defeat -- give people enough resources, and they'll get the job done.

No such luck, as we gird for 2025. Now that all those programs -- the child tax credit, the COVID relief checks, the temporary eviction moratoriums -- have been unceremoniously halted, it's back to choosing between food and medicine, rent and medical bills, car repairs and daycare, or whatever millions of us were grappling with, before the pandemic hit.

For a nation that never stops prattling about the beauty of "choice," what's striking is how few meaningful options are ever offered on the menu. Given how so many are struggling, stranded by a system that's rendered most basic needs -- from energy, to food, housing, and back again -- as exercises in circle-the-drain frustration, what's the most important takeaway, for the Democratic Party?

Five words, it seems, judging by the emails that began flooding my inbox, with the ink barely cold on Harris's defeat: "Just give us money, folks." Hence, this arid opening nugget, blasted out from some entity or other calling itself the Harris Fight Fund (*11/14): "The results in the presidential election weren't something any of us had hoped for."

Quite. Indeed. Do tell. You think? Insert the snark of your choice here. Whatever you conjure up will suffice. Then comes the pitch: 

"So, now our job goes to electing these final members of Congress who will keep Trump in check these next four years. That will take resources. There will be legal challenges and recounts.

"And just like in our campaign, the vast majority of donations we receive to support the Harris Fight Fund program will come from small-dollar donations from people like you looking for something meaningful and important to channel your emotions toward.

"If everyone getting this email donated right now, we'd have what we need to finish the job in these races. But not everyone will give, so we’re urgently asking people who understand how important it is to win these races to contribute today."

How much, then? Fifty bucks, in this case. Still, the underlying assumptions behind this email seemed odd, since the Republicans had already won the Senate, and the House of Representatives' overall makeup remained uncertain, though still tilted towards the GOP. All of which naturally begs the question,
"How much bang will those 50 bucks buy?" Not much, it seems, unless you're a sucker for knife-edged stalemate.


<https://www.downwithtyranny.com>

<iii.>
Evidently, Team Harris's hopes for a brighter post-defeat future hadn't panned out -- at least, that's what a follow-up email (11/21/24) suggested, complete with a chart, highlighting a less than rosy turn of events on the donation front: "You can see the rise as we launched and the drop-off that happened after that. Not great."

That hardly seems surprising, considering how Harris stacked up (74.9 million votes) against her predecessor, Joe Biden (81.2 million votes). Even so, "we are counting on people like you who understand the stakes of holding Trump accountable to get it done," this email hopefully suggested. "Because if we don't have the resources to do so, we won't. It'll be another four years of chaos and confusion. It's honestly that simple."

What's the big takeaway here? That, if I don't kick in the anticipated fifty bucks, Project 2025's dystopian hellscape is all but assured? Apparently so, because the very next day (11/22/24) brought this salvo, from the Harris Fight Fund ("please don't click away"):

Donald Trump is on a mission to bring our country back to a time when we had fewer rights and freedoms than we do today. He is going on a hiring spree appointing loyalists who will do his bidding like RFK Jr.

If everyone reading this message donated even $10, we would not only have a huge number of donations, but we would have the resources to begin holding Trump accountable.


That same day brought yet another plea for funds ("we set a big goal to get our fight fund program off the ground, but the truth is, we’re not on track to hit it"), followed by the same pitch for that 50 bucks, to stop Trump ("We need every member of this team to step up and make sure he knows we won't back down"), and then, the close ("This is one of our most critical fundraising moments, so can you donate $50 for the first time today?").



<2025 Word cloud: Just a bad dream, 
or the shape of things to come?:
Citizens For Responsible Ethics In Washington>

<iv.>
Other organizations seem to have cribbed from the same notebook, such as Voters Not Politicians (VNP). The group is best known for helping to spearhead Proposal 2's passage in 2018, which led to the creation of an independent commission to oversee Michigan's redistricting process.

Like Team Harris's blizzard of fundraising pitches, VNP's morning-after email (11/7/24) starts off on the same unintentional note of understatement:


"I’ll start by saying that the results from Tuesday's election certainly were not what many of us who champion democracy would have hoped for."

Hmm. Really? In any event, VNP also doesn't believe in letting the grass grow under its feet, as the next two paragraphs make plain:

"We are happy to have helped secure wins for Michigan Supreme Court candidates Kimberly Thomas and Kyra Harris-Bolden. But still, the presidential results and the loss of the pro-voter majority in the Michigan House of Representatives are casting a heavy shadow. 

"There will be a lot of analysis in the coming days, weeks, and months, but one thing that’s clear is that democracy is going to need defending, and that's what we do best."

The closing paragraph of the next email, blasted out two days later, is even less subtle, if you consider the self-serving nature of the pitch:
"If you're looking for a place to channel your activism right now, please consider making a contribution to our people-powered movement that is working to defend democracy from election deniers and the dangerous promises made in Project 2025."

Still, re-electing Harris-Bolden and Thomas is a big win against the not-so-shadowy, far right interests who hoped to unseat them. As a result, Michigan voters have suffered far less, compared to other Democratic-led states that lack high court majorities. (Ask Wisconsin's Governor Tony Evers how well that situation works for him.)

And yes, losing the House majority isn't ideal, but at least our high court will likely check whatever power grabs the Republicans dream up. We'll see how much of their originalist fever holds, once those losses start coming to them. The moral of the story? If you show up and vote, you've still got a chance. If you stay home, next time, you may not be so lucky.



<"Ghosts Of Democratic Presidencies Past"/
Take II: The Reckoner

“No space of regret can make amends
for one life's opportunity misused...”
Charles Dickens: "A Christmas Carol">

<v.>
Even so, it feels troubling when you're hearing from an organization like the Democratic Party only when it wants something, whether it's your vote, or your money. Though both items are essential building blocks of politics, they're not the be-all and end-all, either, nor should anyone accept them as such.

That's because, first and foremost, politics is a relationship business. The best -- and worst -- politicos instinctively grasp this principle, when it comes to getting things done. We're all more likely to go the limit for someone who's demonstrated the same quality, even if it's only symbolically. Makes sense, right?

Team Harris seemed to instinctively grasp this principle. Or so it seemed, until a different picture emerged, via media reports of its alleged $20 million campaign debt. The figure included $15 million for "event production," $4 million for private jets, and $1 million paid to Oprah Winfrey's production company. What's more, the Harris-Walz campaign blew through some $1.5 billion in four months -- a mind-blowing figure, when you consider how much it underperformed with all its key constituencies.

Not surprisingly, it's a development that's generated tidal waves of ill will within Democratic Party circles. Democratic megadonor John Morgan's widely quoted statement probably ranks among the more printable responses: "I think this disqualifies her forever. If you can't run a campaign, you can't run America." Naturally, Team Harris disputes the estimate, though it's yielded one net positive -- by the first week in December, all the email begging had finally stopped.

The moral? It's not how much you spend, but where you spend it, that matters. As much as Harris hoped to distance herself from memories of Hillary Clinton's losing run in 2016, both campaigns shared two ironic qualities in common -- a fetish for high-gloss. feelgood-type events, coupled with a heavy reliance on traditional media, and paid advertising. 

All the emphasis on aging superstars -- from Beyonce, to The Boss, and beyond -- proved no match for the GOP's noise machine. Unless you count Bluesky, and MSNBC, there is no obvious Democratic counterweight to the likes of FOX News, Joe Rogan, and a social disinformation space that never rests. Without one, the climb back to contention will prove painful, prolonged, and difficult -- especially when donors remain so stuck on Star Trek
-style social engineering schemes.



<https://www.downwithtyranny.com>

<Coda>
Even if little appetite exists for creating a Democratic answer to FOX, it's worth remembering how many organizations, large and small, could really use the funding. The fateful priority shift that took hold during the early '90s -- chasing the tech money, to erase the traditional Republican advantage in fundraising -- has proven catastrophic, in more ways than one.

Cool beans, maaan! Look at the gadgets that all these crazy techo bros keep cranking out for us!  They're just big kids at heart, only with lots of money!

Who doesn't want some of that? Besides, hoovering up all those little guys' cash is sooo muuuchhh wooorrrkkk, man. Why do that?

I remember all the rhapsodies that accompanied this strategic shift -- about the "information economy," and all those "wired workers" who couldn't help but prosper, because they were going to be so busy "connecting," and "sharing," who'd ever have time for anything else?

How anybody would ever earn any money -- because all this "sharing" was supposed to happen for free, remember -- seemed elusive, but looking back, it made all those debt-raddled slacker kids feel like big shots. And if it's that what it took to fool them, then that was enough.

Little did we know, of course -- or should I say, little did the Democratic Party leaders of the time care, from Senator Charles Schumer, to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and her sidekick, James Clyburn (imagine a more lethally careerist Sancho Panza, to an OTT Don Quixote) -- that these tech bros turned out to be feral turds, whose deeply-held beliefs seem slightly inclined to the right of Attila the Hun, Adolf Hitler, and Louis XIV, combined.

And guess what? Their every waking moments are driven by two of man's most malignant impulses. First, to squeeze as much money from as many as possible, in as short a time as possible. Second, bending the world to their will, by any means necessary, to coin a phrase In polite circles, it's called the march of progress; in less polite ones, psychopathy. LIke great white sharks, they show an alarming lack of interest in sleep.

And, for those still bothering to keep score of such things, the chickens just won't stop coming to roost. Or so it seems, anyhow. But, if any of the Democratic National Committee's dinosaur hierarchy actually are taking notes, a few lessons seem worth repeating, and underscoring. Therefore, once more, with feeling:

Point #1: A relationship based solely on how much money some-entity-or other hopes to extract from you, isn't one that's built to last.

Point #2: When the rank and file suggest, "We really would appreciate something/someone else than the ding-dong nominees/policies you're serving up," it pays to heed the popular outcry.

Point #3: An ally who doesn't share your vision, and throws in their lot for convenience's sake with you, isn't one. And relying on them is a dangerous strategy. In fact, it's like having no strategy at all.

Point #4: Those who don't learn from the past are condemned to repeat it. Those who don't read the room are doomed to play empty houses.

But this is the trouble with friends, as I've already suggested. What will you do with them, once you have them? And, assuming they turn up, how well does the Democratic hierarchy read the room? We'll know, soon enough. -- The Reckoner


“Men's courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, 
if persevered in, they must lead," said Scrooge. "But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change.”

>"A Christmas Carol"<

Friday, November 29, 2024

Why Where We Are, Where We Are, Explained...In One Graphic





Grim as they are, none of these facts -- which I just came across on Facebook -- should surprise anybody who makes their living from anything literacy-related, whether it's editing, teaching, proofreading, writing...you name it. The reality of the piece is that literacy and comprehension go hand in hand with the bigger skills that you'll need later in life, to do more than just enough to slide by. This is a fact, however much those on the other side of that particular divide try to deny it.

Not too long ago, the Squawker and I were discussing how we were -- quite literally -- raised on reading. at home and at school. I have vivid memories of my mother taking me on her knee, and we'd choose a particular book to read together, and she would have me copy down the heavyweight words -- all those 50-cent and one dollar words, as they call them, presumably those with more than two or three syllables -- and go over with them with her.

My father was exactly the same way. Although he worked in construction, a job that involves hard physical labor, he always made time for reading at home. And by that, I don't mean the potboilers of the day, but pretty heavy duty stuff -- his favorite subjects leaned towards history and politics, from such esteemed historians as A. K. P. Taylor, Will Durant -- The Story Of Civilization was a particular favorite -- and Barbara Tuchman (A Distant Mirror. The Guns Of August), to Ballantine's popular series of black and white World War II paperbacks, and beyond. Of course, he always made time for classics, and whatever popular fiction struck his fancy. though I remember him favoring a bit more of the former than the latter.

Looking back, it's all the more striking, since neither of my parents had a great deal of formal education themselves. My mom got as far as a couple years in business college, which was a prerequisite in the '50s and '60s for women looking into secretarial careers -- which she never ended up pursuing, once the demands of raising children like me came calling -- while I'm not sure about my dad. I'm fairly certain he went through high school; whether he graduated, I'm not sure, but he didn't let it stop him from essentially further his education himself, whether it came on the job, or whatever he curled up to read on the couch.

At any rate, my parents understood the importance of putting a premium on understanding the world around them, and impressed that on me. Growing up in the '70s, as I did, I still remember when schools actually taught critical thinking, instead of what we've done for 30-odd years now, since the madness of No Child Left Behind forced teachers to go against their instincts -- and spend much of their time teaching to standardized tests.

While I'm over simplifying somewhat here, all I can say is, check out the above graphic for yourself, and let those facts sink in a little bit. There's a reason why the bandleader, Woody Herman, joked to his musicians, "Don't forget why they call them the Great Unwashed," and there's a reason why Trump constantly intones, "I love the poorly educated." Need we say more, especially after the fallout of Nov. 5, 2024? --The Reckoner

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Same As It Ever Was: Trump's Incredible Shrinking Mandate (UPDATED: 12/9/24)

 

<"Mandate, My Ass!"/The Reckoner>


Of all the words so carelessly bandied about on Election Night 2024, the M-word -- as in, Mandate -- topped the list. Breathless as always, the talking heads rushed to skip ahead of their skis, and give one Donald J. Trump his coveted Golden Mandate Trophy, crown him Emperor, and essentially bend their knee to the poor man's king (as they see him). Or, as a near-hysterical Van Jones howled, in a widely-quoted headline on CNN: "We Were The Idiots."

I agree, though not for the reasons that he surmises, as we'll elaborate on, momentarily. But for a fair hint, you can take the nostalgia tour of what we said in 2016:


"Saturday Night Live," now well and truly ossified as it knocks on Season 50, pretended to mock Trump, even as its corporate masters secretly hoped they'll get the "heullva tax cat" that he so brazenly promised them on the campaign trail. In short, business as usual, leaving that classic Talking Heads refrain from "Once In A Lifetime" to mock us:

"Same as it ever was, 

Same as it was ever was...

Same...as it...

e-e-e-e-v-v-errr was!" 


Hang on a minute, though. Reality always serves up a more complex picture, and this election cycle is no exception. Because, guess what? Trump, in a repeat of his 2016 electoral performance, has slowly fallen back to Earth.

And, while it means that Harris remains the bridesmaid, not the bride, these incoming figures should give pause to those who celebrate a Trump restoration as some kind of widely-desired event:

With 152.7 million votes now counted, Trump's overall share of the popular vote has fallen below 50%, according to the Cook Political Report. He now leads Harris by a far smaller margin, with 76,371,044 million votes (49.99%), versus 73,667,048 million for Harris (48.22%). A decisive margin, yes, but hardly the epic wipeout it seemed last week. Or, for that matter, in 2016. (Reckoner's Note. 12/9/24: Harris finished with 74.9 million votes, or 48.4%, to 77.2 million votes for Trump, or 49.9%. A clear enough margin, for sure, but far short of an epic face plant.)

What's more, Trump's overall victory margin (popular vote and Electoral College) is the third smallest, since 1888, as Richard Stengel, former Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs noted in his Twitter feed. (Sorry, Herr Musk, as far as I'm concerned, the letter X belongs to the classic LA punk band. Not you!)

"(Only JFK in '60 and Nixon in '68 were smaller). If 238K votes in the blue wall states had been different, he would have lost," Stengel pointed out. "Not a mandate."

Trump will become the second Republican Presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote, though his margin will only rank among the 44th best, out of 51 elections, since 1824. However, Trump will re-enter the White House with a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, 221-214, which leaves him little margin for error.

Republicans hold a stronger hand in the U.S. Senate (53-47), but it's mainly due to an electoral map that forced Democrats to defend so many more seats during this election cycle (19, versus 11 for Republicans, and four independents). Embattled Democrats won four battleground states (AZ, MI, NV, WI) that Trump carried this time around, leaving his cheerleaders with "some 'splainin' to do," as Ricky used to tell Lucy. Not that they will try, mind you, but the thought is nice.

In fact, the Republicans' path to undoing the Democrats' 51-49 paper majority largely came through two solidly red states (OH, WV), whereas Kari Lake's second straight faceplant in Arizona typifies their recent Senate track record. It's even less impressive, when we consider Pennsylvania, where 65,000 voters lit their ballots on fire for the Green Party candidate.

That's almost twice the margin separating Bob Casey from the likely winner, David McCormick, but no matter. Democrats will have to stop being so gentle to their spoilers. Still, the result underscores another trend that characterized this election cycle -- self-sabotage.

What do we mean, exactly? Well, this has definitely been a remarkable election, but not in the most positive, best elevated sense of the word.

We have seen Arab Americans in Dearborn restore the very man whom they view as unsympathetic to their cause -- 42,000 dead in Gaza, and counting. Unfortunately, while they succeeded in punishing the Democrats, elevating Netanyahu's fan bro buddy takes their cause off the table till 2028. The moral of the story? Voting backward doesn't move you forward.

We have seen Latinos break big time for the very man obsessed with rooting them willy nilly out of the country, who pledges the largest mass deportation in our history. The moral of the story? If you're not at the table, you're on the menu, so why put yourself there willingly?

And, despite the Democratic nominee's singular emphasis of reproductive rights, in general -- and abortion rights, in particular -- we have seen suburban women also break, generally speaking, for the very man who brags about taking them away. The moral of the story? All the vague reassurances from a self-styled authoritarian father figure won't save you from his unhinged whims.

I honestly don't blame people for feeling discouraged right now. Or, as my sister -- who spent every moment of her spare time canvassing for Kamala Harris, and others like her -- put it, "Every time we take two steps forward, we seem to take one step back."

But we also agree, there's no sense in dwelling on those sentiments. All we can do is learn whatever lessons present themselves, and try to forge ahead. Pick a period in our history, any period, and what follows the latest advancement? A furious backlash, driven by those who don't accept it, and resent the notion of coming to terms with it.

Like it or not, the forces behind this pugilistic state of permanent aggrievement aren't going away, and aren't willingly going to hand back whatever power they grub away for themselves. All we can do is hope that we're strong enough to seize the moment, whenever or however it presents itself, and above all else, equal to the task. We expect no more, and we demand no less. --The Reckoner


Links To Go:
The David M. Katz Poetry Blog: "Mandate, My Ass":
https://davidmkatzpoet.com/blog/mandate-my-ass

WhoSampled: 
https://www.whosampled.com/sample/178978/Le-Dust-Sucker-Mandate-My-Ass-Gil-Scott-Heron-B-Movie/

[Where to find Gil Scott-Heron's brilliant takedown of Reagan's electoral win, that wound up being sampled in Le Dust Sucker's 2004 sendup of George W. Bush's victory -- what's the saying here? "Everything is old, is new again?" Or, "The more things change..."? Or, "History doesn't repeat, it rhymes?" Take your pick.]

Yahoo News: Popular Vote Totals
Make Trump's Mandate Looks Like  A Mirage:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/maddow-blog-popular-vote-totals-130359790.html

(Reckoner's Note: Included, for the record. I stopped watching MSNBC in 2024, after seeing their complicity in the shanking of the Bernie movement, an impression not helped by Mira and Joe's sickening display of "obedience in advance," along with their pilgrimage, on bent knee, to Mar-A-Lago. I don't think Musk should be allowed to buy it, so however progressives can block it is fine with us. However, it's another reminder, as if we needed it, of the need to wrest control from a legacy media largely owned and co-opted by monied interests.]

Monday, November 11, 2024

Tomorrow And Tomorrow And Tomorrow Creeps (Part VI): Staring Down The Trump Restoration (UPDATED: 11/12/24)


<That ship has sailed...so much for that idea, eh?:
Campaign mailer that arrived late in our mailbox>

For of all sad words of tongue or pen,
The saddest are these: “It might have been!”
<John Greenleaf Whittier>

<i.>
In the end, all our best intentions, dearest dreams, and highest hopes were not nearly enough. The coming of Kamala Harris, and the various hopeful milestones that it represented -- first Black, first female, first South Asian President -- crashed and burned against the rocks of the same rancorous misogyny that swallowed up Hillary Clinton's hopes in 2016. White woman, or Black, millions of Americans are simply unwilling to envision such a person leading them.

Eight years on, the glass ceiling that broke millions of women's hearts remains, as immovable and unbreakable as ever. Only this time around, top advisor Cedric Richmond found himself pressed into the role that John Podesta occupied in 2016, as the bearer of bad tidings, roughly along these lines:

Candidate Harris will not address you tonight. Whatever happens, we left it all on the field. We will fight to ensure that every vote is counted, and we'll see you tomorrow morning. And so on, and so forth. It's a ritual that Democrats have come to know well -- 
the grizzled sage, left to preside over the Viking funeral. 

For those who hoped against hope, there's no sugarcoating the results, as the various rationales behind them rapidly evaporated. First-time voters? Late deciders? They broke mostly for Trump. That eleventh hour poll, the one showing Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa, a state she didn't even bother to visit? Trump won it overwhelmingly, for the third time, by 13 points.

The high decibel apocalyptic aura of Harris's last couple weeks of campaigning, anchored around the nightmares of further abortion restrictions, and the hollowing out of democracy? Voters mostly shrugged it off, apparently satisfied with Trump's promise not to pursue either of them -- at least, not right away, it seems.

Cruelty won, as did all the "isms," ageism, racism, and sexism. So did sedition, since-the various legal cases involving Donald Trump are melting
 away as we speak. So will those of his wildest-eyed disciples who smeared feces on walls, crushed police officers in doors, and bayed for the blood of all who opposed their fight to undo Joe Biden's electoral victory on January 6th, 2021. Thanks to Trump's black-robed enablers, and the foot dragging of Attorney General Merrick Garland, The Great Ditherer, the drive to hold conspirators large and small accountable will dry up and blow away, as if the attempted coup had never happened.

The bully boys have wasted no time asserting themselves. The morning after the election, on November 6th, Black folk in some 21 states -- including local political leaders in my area -- got blasted with racist texts cheering on their second enslavement. Moments like these serve as a rejoinder, for those who still cling to the idea, "This isn't who we are" -- Alas, no. On this evidence, this is very much who we are, and always have been.


<Snapshot of what might have been: 
Late campaign mailer, Harris-Walz, Take II>

<ii>
So what went wrong, exactly? By all rights, it shouldn't have even been close. In Trump, the Republicans were again banking on a nominee so endlessly aggrieved, so obviously unhinged, and so obviously consumed by the endless need for attention and wealth -- with immediate retaliation prescribed for those who would deny either of those things. Still, unlike in 2020, Trump actually won the popular vote this time, which is a notable achievement, at least on paper.

Harris's candidacy boasted some major positives, starting with the lack of baggage that dogged Clinton's 2016 run. You also had a Democratic nominee 18 years younger than her rival, brimming with superior energy, and smarts -- as her only debate with Trump showed -- and better positioned than her boss to argue for core issues like abortion rights. How could she miss?

Well, as the wags joke, "The biggest party is the Stay-At-Home Party, or, the Couch Party." It's easy to see why, when we compare Harris's totals, as they stand now (70.4 million votes) with Biden's 2020 victory (81.3 million), which means that she garnered 10.9 million fewer than her predecessor. It's hard to imagine anyone succeeding, with such anemic numbers. In contrast, Trump's current estimated total of 74.3 million represents a modest improvement over his 2020 showing (72.4 million).

Put another way, "Trump didn't win a popular vote majority this time because 1-1.5 million Biden voters flipped to him. He won it because over 7 million Biden voters stayed home this time" (Down With Tyranny). So why did they? As we all know by now, exit polls showed the economy as the top issue. Although Harris
threw out various ideas for taming runaway food and housing costs -- notably, cracking down on the rampant price gouging that's driving so much  current misery -- she offered precious few details for how she'd go about it.

Although it's natural for politicos to indulge in some rhetorical foggery -- to allow sufficient maneuvering room, if they do get elected -- Harris's tightly-scripted presentation left voters largely unmoved, it seems. Like 
Hillary Clinton had done before her, Harris kept the relevant cards close to her chest. Stick with me, she suggested, and the ride will be great. You'll just have to see how I manage it.

All of which might have passed muster in a different era, except for one fatal flaw -- a refusal to acknowledge how voters felt. On that score, Team Harris's assertions barely differed from those of Team Biden (2024), or Team Clinton (2016): C'mon, folks, what are you moaning about? The stock market's never been higher! Unemployment's never been lower! Wages have never risen higher! 

For all of Harris's promises about creating an "opportunity economy," what's striking about America today is how uphill that idea feels. With inequality at rampant levels, how far can anybody move up the ladder, let alone keep heads above water? Any number of statistics will drive home the point, as you can see from Bernie Sanders's blistering statement (see below): "While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry, and want change. And they're right. Today, while the very rich are doing phenomenally well, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, and we have more income and wealth inequality than ever before."

Indeed, pressed by "The View" as to what she might have done differently over the last four years, Harris responded, "There's not a thing that comes to mind." Not surprisingly, Trump seized on that line for his final attack ads, a rhetorical grenade that hit its mark, more than not. The tepidness in some of her proposals -- such as returning corporate taxes to pre-Trump levels of 28 percent, before his signature bill cut them to 21 percent -- undermined Harris's posture as the candidate of change.

Some commentators attribute Harris's skittishness to the influence of her well-connected brother-in-law, Uber's vice president and chief legal officer, Tony West, who apparently urged her to go easy on Big Business (see below). Ugly as it is, and sounds, the story crystallizes the Democratic Party's biggest problem. For the Boomer normies who run the party, flipping the script on most major issues -- whether it's the cost of living, or the slaughter in Gaza -- is simply a bridge too far.


But you can only keep saying, "Eat your spinach, we'll let you know when you can finally have bacon," for so long. And, unless Democrats can offer a more compelling answer -- or, at least, push out the normies who gifted us with this debacle -- their slog back from the wilderness will be lengthy, painful, and complicated.


<"Bjelke Blues": Front cover art>

<iii.>
On to our next question. As Trump and his minions retake center stage, what might they actually do, and how will it affect us? Though comparisons with Weimar-era Germany seem obvious, which we've explored here, the repressive model of Johannes "Joh" Bjelke-Petersen, the notoriously iron-fisted Premier of Queensland, Australia, offers a closer template for how an illiberal America under Trump might actually look.

For those who don't know his story, Bjelke-Petersen ruled Queensland from 1968 to 1987, largely by creative gerrymandering, and total control of the institutions that mattered, including the police, and the bureaucracy -- to impose his blunt force style of governance over every aspect of life. In that regard, this blog post by Edwina Shaw, author/compiler of Bjelke Blues -- a retrospective essay collection -- is illustrative:

"For almost 20 years he stayed in power, despite receiving only 20% or so of the vote through a notorious gerrymander. He drew electoral boundaries around left-leaning areas in wiggly jigsaw-patterns around the state. Funding went first to areas that voted for his party, then to the other members of his right-wing coalition, leaving next to nothing for Left wing Labor electorates. He used the police force as his own personal army giving them unprecedented powers to enter properties under the infamous Health Act. Bjelke used taxpayers’ money to fund his personal vendettas through the law courts. He once sued every member of the opposition party for defamation. Heard enough yet?

"And through all of this obvious corruption – I won’t go into the rape of the environment, jobs for mates, and the police and government corruption that eventually brought about his downfall – through all of this, he appeared on television every night with his peanut-shaped head and blotchy skin, smiling crookedly, bewildering and amusing journalists with his own special brand of obfuscating banter. Remind you of anyone in power now? ‘Don’t you worry about that!’"

As you might imagine, Bjelke-Petersen's brutal, hard-charging leadership took a considerable toll, starting with the exodus of a good chunk of Queensland's best and brightest, who didn't see themselves faring well in a climate where any public gatherings of three or more people were automatically illegal, The Stranglers' experience of this atmosphere when they toured Australia inspired one of their best-known songs, "Nuclear Device (The Wizard Of Aus)," which reached #36 UK as a single, in October 1979  (for the video, see the link below).

Outside of his Queensland fiefdom, "The HIllbilly Dictator" -- as Bjelke-Petersen's detractors dubbed him -- was viewed largely as an unflattering hangover from a different era, Shaw observes: "
In Australia’s other states and in other countries too, Joh was seen as a laughable buffoon, a joke. But life under Joh was no laughing matter." Eventually, December 1987, Bjelke-Petersen abruptly quit his post, amid accusations of police corruption and cronyism that made it politically unviable for him to continue.

The fallout dashed Bjelke-Petersen's plans for stepping down in 1988, to mark the twentieth anniversary of his ascent to power. But further efforts to hold him accountable foundered, 
amid the usual technicalities (see the Wikipedia entry below), allowing Bjelke-Petersen to live out a low-key retirement. One of the last times that Joh made headlines came in 2003, when he unsuccessfully sued the Queensland government for $338 million, alleging loss of income, due to government persecution. Sound familiar? It should.

Like all bad actors, Bjelke-Petersen lived and breathed for an ungodly stretch of time, dying at age 94, in 2005 -- earning a full state funeral, despite his notoriety, although 2,000 demonstrators turned up in Queensland's capital (Brisbane) to provide an appropriate counter-perspective. As our whistle stop tour here suggests, not all autocracies emerge through violent military coups, or counterrevolutions. Sometimes, the co-opting of major institutions, coupled with creative abuses of power, produces the same effect.


<Like January 6th never happened 
(...Once the pardons kick in):
Late campaign mailer, Harris-Walz, Take III>

<iv.>
Getting his trifecta of complete governmental control, as he did in 2016, will give Trump all the relevant tools he needs to push America down a Bjelke-style path, starting with the proverbial "phone and pen." We can count on Trump to fire off a blizzard of executive orders that further his various obsessions, like his hatred of electric cars, for example. 

And that's before we contemplate the specter of a Trump-dominated Congress, enabled by the Extreme (Supreme) Court -- the same one, let's not forget, that crafted a sweeping immunity right for him, out of thin air -- poised to make the far right's wish list come true. Reports suggest that the first priority is permanently locking down those 2017 tax cuts, with corporate taxes falling to 15 percent.

As critics note, this orgy of tax slashing could add $8 trillion to the national debt, and accelerate Social Security's insolvency by three years -- since Trump wants to exempt it from the taxes that fund it. How his party addresses such inconvenient facts, we haven't heard, but their carefree approach certainly puts social programs at risk. After all, you have to make up those windfalls for billionaires somewhere, and who wants them camping out in the cold and snow?

Or maybe Trump and his allies will take the more straightforward route, such as converting Medicare and Medicaid into block grants -- another long-standing far right priority -- or try to hollow out the Affordable Care Act, by stripping away its more popular elements, such as protections for pre-existing conditions.

Other reports suggest that resuming the GOP's court capture project will take priority in the new year. This makes sense, since the longest-serving Extreme Supremes -- Sam Alito, and Clarence Thomas, at 74 and 76, respectively, will face pressure to retire, and make room for younger, more toxic versions of themselves, who can wreak havoc with a gavel for decades. Someone like Aileen Cannon, perhaps, whose sinking of Trump's classified documents case has put her on the fast track for the promotion.

This, despite the passage of abortion rights measures in seven out of 10 states, including two (AZ, MO) that overturned existing restrictions, and one (FL) that failed, because it fell short of a Republican-imposed 60% threshold. No matter: as Joh himself said, when pressed about the subject of human rights, he responded, "What's the ordinary man on the street got to do with it?" It's a quote that would likely have earned Trump's full-throated approval, had he been made aware of it.


<"And Now (A Word From Our Sponsor): Thanks, Woody..."
Take I/The Reckoner>


<v.>
We turn to the last, most pressing question, what do we do now, and how should we respond? First and foremost: before we plan the relevant marches, and roll out the pink pussy hats once more, we need new leadership, and should not rest, until we finally get it. The aging affluent overclass that runs the Democratic Party needs to step down, because their credibility is now in tatters.

Yes, Biden should likely have exited the stage earlier -- preferably, at the start of 202. But honestly, it's high time for the next generation -- the Ro Khannas, Pramila Jayapals, Jamie Raskins, and the Adam Schiffs, and so on -- to take the reins, and inject some fresh ideas into the conversation. The sooner, the better.

Second: For all the chatter about the Democratic "ground game," what's striking -- and disturbing -- is how short it fell of its promised results. Someone needs to see why so many core voters stayed home, considering how much emphasis Team Harris placed on the stakes of this election. Most likely, they're only hearing from the door knockers at election time, but it's harder to win people over, if you don't show more skin in the game.

Third: Overtones matter in messaging, and the wrong ones will trigger a rush to the exits. I cringed when former President Obama scolded young Black men for their reluctance to embrace Harris's candidacy; winced, when Biden blasted Trump voters as "garbage"; and groaned at the usual barrage of celebrity endorsements - from Lady Gaga to Oprah, Taylor Swift, and beyond -- all of which singularly failed to connect. Word to the Whoopis of the world: next time, just cut the check, and leave the spotlight shining where it belongs, on the nominee.

Fourth: The wrong priorities can be fatal. It's hard to overstate the oddity of Harris campaigning with the likes of Liz Cheney, whose notorious father played wingman in handing his boss, George, the disputed 2000 presidential election. Progressives recoiled, and for good reason. If saving democracy is such a major part of the message, why share a podium with the Cheneys? What's more, it's perilous to start depending on allies whose interests barely align with yours. It's a dangerous strategy, and certainly not a guarantee of political longevity. Or relevance.

Last, and most important: As tough as the results feels, there's nowhere to go, but up. For Democrats, it should mean going back to basics, starting with the sweeping economic reform message that worked n the 1930s. The plain fact is, without weeping reforms, all this blather about creating an "opportunity economy" will amount to just so much empty hot air, as guest poster Patrick Toomey notes on Down With Tyranny: 

"I was hoping that a Trump defeat would lead to GOP rounds of recrimination. Instead, we’re now seeing that with the Dems, including the tired tripe that the party is 'too liberal' and must move to a mythical 'center.' Few seem to be addressing economic class issues— the elephant in the room that the party mandarins and their on-air and on-line enablers invariably ignore." And, from the same post, I'll leave the last word to author/commentator Tom Frank, former editor of The Baffler, who sums it up better than I ever could:

"I have been writing about these things for 20 years, and I have begun to doubt that any combination of financial disaster or electoral chastisement will ever turn on the lightbulb for the liberals. I fear that ’90s-style centrism will march on, by a sociological force of its own, until the parties have entirely switched their social positions and the world is given over to Trumpism.

"Can anything reverse it? Only a resolute determination by the Democratic Party to rededicate itself to the majoritarian vision of old: a Great Society of broad, inclusive prosperity. This means universal health care and a higher minimum wage. It means robust financial regulation and antitrust enforcement. It means unions and a welfare state and higher taxes on billionaires, even the cool ones. It means, above all, liberalism as a social movement, as a coming-together of ordinary people — not a series of top-down reforms by well-meaning professionals.

"That seems a long way away today. But the alternative is — what? To blame the voters? To scold the world for failing to see how noble we are? No. It will take the opposite sentiment — solidarity — to turn the world right-side up again."

Now, that's a sentiment we can all get behind. Onward and upward, for there is much work to be done. --The Reckoner

PS Incidentally, I'm still getting fundraising emails from the Harris campaign, these ones tied to the handful of national races that have yet to be called: "
We must stay engaged for the sake of freedom, justice, and the future that we all know we can build together. The outcomes of these elections may well have an impact on our ability to hold the incoming administration accountable -- so let’s give this everything we’ve got."

True enough. But something tells me that someone else will have to be the face of whatever resistance emerges. Simply because, based on this evidence, the current political class is well past its sell-by date.

Oh, and as for the Inaugural? Maybe they should run a laugh track behind it, particularly when they get to the "protect against enemies, foreign and domestic" part. It will make a fitting soundtrack for our return to the dark side.

Links To Go: Hurry, Hurry (Joh's Ghost
Is Bellying Up To The Bar):

AOL: What Trump's Second Term


Deccan Herald: International New York Times:
Harris Had A Wall Street-Approved Economic Pitch: It Fell Flat:
https://www.deccanherald.com/world/harris-had-a-wall-street-approved-economic-pitch-it-fell-flat-3269832


Joh Bjelke-Petersen: Wikipedia.com Entry:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joh_Bjelke-Petersen

[Well worth the read, packed with plenty of fascinating detail]