wishes Mitch McConnell a happy retirement,
on his way out of the building...>
<i.>
Slowly but surely, after months of missed deadlines, and postponed reveals, the dream died -- not with a bang, but a whimper, to coin that timeworn T.S. Eliot phrase. On April 4, the forces behind the No Labels curtain finally confirmed what the commentariat had already gathered -- that it wouldn't mount a third party ticket for this year's high stakes Presidential election.
In its public statement, the group blamed a lack of suitable candidates: "No Labels has always said we would only our ballot line to a ticket if we could identify candidates with a credible path to winning the White House. No such candidates emerged, so the responsible course of action for us is to stand down."
In its public statement, the group blamed a lack of suitable candidates: "No Labels has always said we would only our ballot line to a ticket if we could identify candidates with a credible path to winning the White House. No such candidates emerged, so the responsible course of action for us is to stand down."
Or, to put it another way, nobody wants to end up the punchline of a joke, nor their epitaph to read: "I helped Trump regain the White House." Which is why some two dozen-odd names --- ranging from Trump's last major rival, Nikki Haley, to 2016 retreads like Chris Christie, Never Trumpers like ex-Maryland Governor, Larry Hogan, and the West Virginia Gremlin, Senator Joe Manchin -- turned down the opportunity, it seems.
That left Democratic strategist Doug Gordon to tie a bow on the obvious: "It shouldn't taken 30 people turning them down, and tens of millions of dollars spent, for them to realize what was clear all along, they had no path to winning, and would only play the role of a spoiler."
That left Democratic strategist Doug Gordon to tie a bow on the obvious: "It shouldn't taken 30 people turning them down, and tens of millions of dollars spent, for them to realize what was clear all along, they had no path to winning, and would only play the role of a spoiler."
The basic premise of No Labels -- a joint Democratic/Republican ticket, primed for that ever-elusive commodity of "common ground" -- sounded breathtakingly simple, and infuriatingly head scratching, at the same time. As I often joked, "Does this mean we'll get that dream pairing of some free market militarist, and vaguely progressive-sounding second banana? What's the appeal?"
How would such an ideological tossed salad would ever work? No Labels never explained. Still, the concept appeared to pose a significant threat to President Biden's re-election hopes, especially among so-called "double haters" -- or voters who can't stomach him, or Trump. The group had gotten on 19 state ballots -- greased by its mysterious patrons behind the curtain, and their apparently bottomless checkbooks -- before it pulled the plug.
Who were these masked men? Don't ask, don't tell. We'll never know, since anonymity is the coin of dark money politics. Thankfully, No Labels and left the building, and we're all the better off for it. Does this mean we shouldn't worry about other third party efforts? That depends, as we'll see.
How would such an ideological tossed salad would ever work? No Labels never explained. Still, the concept appeared to pose a significant threat to President Biden's re-election hopes, especially among so-called "double haters" -- or voters who can't stomach him, or Trump. The group had gotten on 19 state ballots -- greased by its mysterious patrons behind the curtain, and their apparently bottomless checkbooks -- before it pulled the plug.
Who were these masked men? Don't ask, don't tell. We'll never know, since anonymity is the coin of dark money politics. Thankfully, No Labels and left the building, and we're all the better off for it. Does this mean we shouldn't worry about other third party efforts? That depends, as we'll see.
<"Give 'Em
What They Want"/
The Reckoner>
What They Want"/
The Reckoner>
Right-wing activist Jack Posobiec
kicks off this year's
Conservative Political Action Conference>
<ii.>
Younger voters have also soured on Biden -- notably, due to Israel's destructive militaristic orgy against Gaza, and lack of progress on priorities like student loan debt relief. How long they'll hold their grudges remains to be seen, especially if Trump's return shows signs of gaining traction again (and the white Christian nationalist police state he openly mulls about vowing to impose -- just read Project 2025 for those grisly specifics).
But let's put those factors aside, and take the arguments at face value. If Biden's past his sell-by date, isn't it time for a political savior, who can lead us to that shining city on the hill? Someone preferably unsullied by current events, and our tribalized politics, of course, who could ride the disaffected vote to an eleventh hour upset.
Might that figure be Cornel West, the rock star academic who can boil complex ideas into snappy soundbites ("The ruling class can't ride your back, unless it's bent")? Voters who feel the Democratic Party could never be progressive enough, no matter what it does, those disaffected voters may well be inclined to say, "Go West, young man."
Yet West's intoxicating verbal tonic is one that's also long on rhetoric, and silent about how he'd turn any of his priorities -- a $27 per hour minimum wage, a National Jobs Program to ensure full employment, banning corporate stock buybacks, and so on -- into reality. His campaign website presents them as a string of bullet points, and leaves it there, at least for now.
West's dizzying zigzags -- from the People's Party, to Green Party, and back again, to full-on independent -- also hint at a short attention span that would kill him on Capitol Hill, where philosopher-kings are scarcely seen, for a reason. His lack of political experience also begs the question, after the dumpster fire of the Trump-era presidency, whether we can ever afford the luxury of training someone on the job.
West's dizzying zigzags -- from the People's Party, to Green Party, and back again, to full-on independent -- also hint at a short attention span that would kill him on Capitol Hill, where philosopher-kings are scarcely seen, for a reason. His lack of political experience also begs the question, after the dumpster fire of the Trump-era presidency, whether we can ever afford the luxury of training someone on the job.
But West's bullet points are positively encyclopedic, compared to the one-paragraph statements that characterize the "Principles" section of Stein's website. Like West -- for whom Stein also served as campaign manager, during his Green Party phase -- she supports the right to a living wage, food, and housing, the Green New Deal, and curtailing American military interventions. Like West, Stein is equally silent about how she'd make any of those things happen.
There's also the small matter of how Democrats might feel about seeing someone whom they blame for costing Hillary Clinton the 2016 election, coming back for an encore. I suspect they won't be so casually dismissive of Stein's impact as they were in 2016. What kind of opposition research fireworks they'll unload against her, I'll leave to your imagination.
Take I: The Reckoner>
<iii.>
All right, then. Perhaps Cornel West and Jill Stein are too flawed to be successful. Might RFK Jr. be the political savior we've been seeking? A look at his website offers a more detailed overview than your standard issue white knight provides. He espouses some classic liberal positions, from the $15 per hour minimum wage, to free childcare, and reining in housing costs. His policy page is fairly detailed -- such as proposals to promote homeownership -- and, in some places, downright hyper-specific (for example, the idea of expanding AmeriCorps, which is laudatory in itself).
How Democrats will square those particular circles with Kennedy's vaccine and geopolitical skepticism remains to be seen. RFK Jr. also has little to say on foreign affairs, beyond (emphasis mine) ending "the military adventures and regime-change wars, like the one in Ukraine." Looking for someone to check Putin's megalo-tyrannical impulses? Look elsewhere. Otherwise, like most newcomers, he has little to say about foreign policy issues (in fairness, not having been in a position to deal with them).
There's also the small matter of Kennedy's funding, starting with Timothy Mellon -- a billionaire who once stood proudly in Trump's corner, to the tune of $15 million, for various MAGA-related causes. He's since emerged as RFK Jr.'s biggest patron, at $20 million, followed by Gavin de Becker ($10 million), a security consultant for the likes of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos.
Strangely, though, American Values -- the Kennedy Super PAC, through which his campaign cash gushes -- has returned most of de Becker's money (see link below). But it's well worth asking: does a candidate surrounded (and bankrolled) by the reactionary mega-rich have any right to claim the progressive mantle, and whose interests will he actually represent?
That's before we get to other small matters, like the January 6, 2021 insurrection. Kennedy's suggestion that the ongoing federal prosecutions of defendants -- the same ones who used batons, bear spray, flagpoles, sticks, and tomahawks that day -- are politically motivated reeks of either jaw-dropping naivete, moral bankruptcy, or sheer stupidity, depending on your mood, or outlook.
Despite his background as an environmental lawyer, Kennedy is also a climate change skeptic, and has shown little appetite for regulations -- although he does support banning liquified natural gas exports. (Biden has paused them.) That desire to "have it both ways" -- coupled with opposition to gun control, Trumpian-style calls for a closed border, and full-throated defense of Israel -- could make Kennedy radioactive to the vast majority of Democratic voters. Time will tell.
<"Labels, Shmabels"/
Take II: The Reckoner>
<iv.>
So, does RFK Jr,'s presence automatically dampen Biden's second term prospects? Not necessarily. First, non-major party candidates typically tend to lose steam as the big day looms closer, and people revisit whatever initial choices they've made.
The classic example is the 1992 election, when Texas billionaire Ross Perot came from nowhere to lead national polls (36%) over Republican President George Bush (30%), and Democratic challenger, BIll Clinton (26%). It was an event that inspired much brow-furrowing and finger-wagging from pundits, as both major parties scrambled to court Perot and his followers.
They needn't have bothered, as Perot finished with 18.9% of the popular vote on Election Day. Although Perot turned in the best showing of any independent candidate since 1912, it failed to win any love from the Electoral College -- because he didn't carry a single state.
Other cases include that of Ralph Nader -- who earned 2.74% of the popular vote in 2000, well short of the 5% he hoped to earn for the Green Party, and claim federal matching funds -- but enough to deny Democrat Al Gore the White House. Or you could point to Libertarian Gary Johnson, who averaged 8 percent throughout the 2016 Presidential race, only to bottom out at 4%. Any number of examples will do.
The classic example is the 1992 election, when Texas billionaire Ross Perot came from nowhere to lead national polls (36%) over Republican President George Bush (30%), and Democratic challenger, BIll Clinton (26%). It was an event that inspired much brow-furrowing and finger-wagging from pundits, as both major parties scrambled to court Perot and his followers.
They needn't have bothered, as Perot finished with 18.9% of the popular vote on Election Day. Although Perot turned in the best showing of any independent candidate since 1912, it failed to win any love from the Electoral College -- because he didn't carry a single state.
Other cases include that of Ralph Nader -- who earned 2.74% of the popular vote in 2000, well short of the 5% he hoped to earn for the Green Party, and claim federal matching funds -- but enough to deny Democrat Al Gore the White House. Or you could point to Libertarian Gary Johnson, who averaged 8 percent throughout the 2016 Presidential race, only to bottom out at 4%. Any number of examples will do.
On this evidence, it's hard to imagine a path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for any of this year's upstart class, though how deeply RFK Jr. will bite into Biden's margin remains to be seen. Depending on the poll, Kennedy's support ranges from the high single digits (8-9%), to the mid-teens (15%). Some polls show Kennedy taking votes equally from Trump and Biden, which makes sense, since insurgent candidates can often appeal to different voting blocs that would otherwise have little in common.
Other polls, like one from NBC News (see link below), suggest Trump has more to worry about -- with 15% of his voters choosing RFK Jr. in a five-way matchup. (Just 7% of Biden supporters would back RFK Jr., if they had the same option.) Yet even the inclusions of West and Stein doesn't prevent Biden from coming out on top, though only just barely -- by two points.
The scenario has prompted the punditry to dismiss the NBC poll as an outlier, although others -- notably, Marist, and Quinnipiac -- have registered similar results. The verbal barrage that Trump has begun to unleash against RFK Jr. as "a Democratic plant," and "a WASTED PROTEST VOTE," suggests that the former President has already reached a different conclusion.
<"That Same Old Broken Record..."/The Reckoner>
<Coda>
So just where does all this insurgent energy leave us? As anxious as ever, basically, since the country is headed towards the Great Old White Guy Grudge March -- the same one that most of us openly dread, and don't want, so the pollsters say. In a different era, Trump and Biden would already be sailing into the sunset, plotting how to manage the dueling narratives of their legacies, and competing storylines.
Yet it's hard to imagine a different outcome in a nation that long ago slid into gerontocracy, whether we look at the average ages in the US House of Representatives (57.9), US Senate (65.3), or US Supreme Court (63). The doddering, tone deaf politicians we mocked during the '70s, when I grew up, are now as common as Elvis stamps -- like Iowa Republican Charles Grassley, re-elected in 2022, at 89. If we want the big names off the stage, it would help to stop enabling their ambitions. If not, look for them to continue dying at their desks, at least figuratively.
Given this unsavory backdrop of dead men and women still walking, it's not hard to understand why the emotional appeal of third parties -- even after the wreckage they left us in 2016 -- has never been higher. Snappish dismissals and stern admonitions will do little to turn that particularly tide, as Hillary Clinton recently demonstrated, by telling disaffected voters, "Get over yourself." It's Biden or Trump, so shut up, and swallow it, right?
The Boomer-era generation that Clinton represents -- the same one that yanked the economic, social and political ladders up behind them, once they'd achieved whatever they'd achieved -- lacks the moral capital to demand such unblinking compliance from the younger generation it's left to sweep up the mess.
However, the twin demons of ego and aggrandizement continue to muddle the success of such a remedy -- since third parties in America have normally served as convenient vehicles for their standard bearers. It's hard to imagine that Cornel West, for instance, really believes he'll occupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. But as one of the nation's hottest speakers, the idea of a Presidential run, however improbable, will certainly gin up his ticket sales, and his speaking fees.
The Boomer-era generation that Clinton represents -- the same one that yanked the economic, social and political ladders up behind them, once they'd achieved whatever they'd achieved -- lacks the moral capital to demand such unblinking compliance from the younger generation it's left to sweep up the mess.
However, the twin demons of ego and aggrandizement continue to muddle the success of such a remedy -- since third parties in America have normally served as convenient vehicles for their standard bearers. It's hard to imagine that Cornel West, for instance, really believes he'll occupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. But as one of the nation's hottest speakers, the idea of a Presidential run, however improbable, will certainly gin up his ticket sales, and his speaking fees.
And what Stein accomplish in what looks like a far lower-key second run is anyone's guess, though at worst, she might score a a book deal, or maybe a high-profile job at some institution or other. And would RFK Jr. even figure in the running, without his surname, and his family DNA? The question answers itself.
What's more, this year's insurgent class may not leave any major legacy -- whether it's a new political party, or even an advocacy group to promote their ideas -- once the dust settles from this election. That task will inevitably fall to another upstart candidate to reinvent the wheel all over again, leaving us to bemoan our lot, as we always do: "Why aren't there any real choices this year?"
I have a better idea. Let us stop waiting for some self-styled white knight or social messiah to swoop in at the eleventh hour, whose lofty rhetoric will make our eyes water, and eliminate the need for the heavy lifting that real organizational efforts typically require. Because, make no mistake, the climb has never seemed steeper, because the stakes have never been higher. And there is much work to be done. --The Reckoner
Links To Go:
BBC: Democrats Are Worried:
But Will RFK Jr. Take More Votes From Trump?:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893186
Rolling Stone: Meet The Big Money Moguls
Behind RFK Jr.'s Quest To Unseat Biden:
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/rfk-donors-trump-investors-celebs-1234975307/
The Hill: Democrats Score Victory
With No Labels's Decision To Call it Quits:
BBC: Democrats Are Worried:
But Will RFK Jr. Take More Votes From Trump?:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893186
Rolling Stone: Meet The Big Money Moguls
Behind RFK Jr.'s Quest To Unseat Biden:
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/rfk-donors-trump-investors-celebs-1234975307/
The Hill: Democrats Score Victory
With No Labels's Decision To Call it Quits:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4577221-no-labels-joe-biden-donald-trump-independents-larry-hogan/
The Hill: Hillary Clinton "Get Over Yourself" Comment
Threatens To Backfire On Biden:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4575600-hillary-clinton-get-over-yourself-biden/
NBC News: RFK Candidacy Hurts Trump More Than Biden:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536
The Washington Post:
No Labels Wanted A Centrist Ticket.
Polarization, Trump Stood In The Way:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/06/no-labels-trump-biden-election/
The Hill: Hillary Clinton "Get Over Yourself" Comment
Threatens To Backfire On Biden:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4575600-hillary-clinton-get-over-yourself-biden/
NBC News: RFK Candidacy Hurts Trump More Than Biden:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536
The Washington Post:
No Labels Wanted A Centrist Ticket.
Polarization, Trump Stood In The Way:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/06/no-labels-trump-biden-election/
